Kevin PeltonApr 9, 2025, 09:30 AM ET
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- Co-author, Professional Basketball Prospectus collection
- Previously a expert with the Indiana Pacers
- Evolved WARP score and SCHOENE machine
Closing yr, Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark went from No. 1 decide within the WNBA draft to a top-five end in MVP balloting and a place at the All-WNBA first workforce. Contemporary off main UConn to its first nationwide championship since 2016, can Paige Bueckers make a an identical affect because the presumptive No. 1 decide in Monday’s draft?
Clark did enjoy a few of what fellow No. 1 decide Diana Taurasi termed “fact,” specifically all the way through a brutal begin to the time table. With the Fever time table front-loaded towards probably the most WNBA’s height groups, together with 3 matchups each and every with the Connecticut Solar and New York Liberty within the first 13 video games, Clark shot 37% from the sector and had just about as many turnovers as assists whilst Indiana began 3-10.
By the point Clark returned from the WNBA’s Olympic smash, on the other hand, she used to be one of the crucial league’s most respected gamers down the stretch. Over that span, Clark averaged 23.1 PPG and eight.9 APG because the Fever reached the playoffs for the primary time since 2016.
Let’s smash down Bueckers’ efficiency at UConn along the ones of Clark at Iowa and different school stars to get a greater thought of what the Dallas Wings can be expecting in the event that they certainly make her the No. 1 decide Monday.
Selective, environment friendly scorer
In comparison to Clark, a herbal scorer, Bueckers is a little more reserved in that regard. She peaked at 21.9 PPG as a junior earlier than shedding to 19.9 as a senior with the arriving of freshman Sarah Sturdy and the go back of Azzi Fudd to the lineup. Bueckers’ easiest utilization fee at UConn used to be 29%; Clark used to be at 36.5% or upper all 4 years of her school profession.
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When the Huskies wanted it, on the other hand, Bueckers confirmed the power to ramp up her scoring — specifically all the way through the 2025 NCAA event. Having crowned 32 issues simply as soon as in her profession (towards Arkansas early in her sophomore season), Bueckers surpassed that mark back-to-back in a second-round win over South Dakota State that used to be additionally her ultimate recreation in Storrs after which in UConn’s Candy 16 win over Oklahoma.
The latter recreation showcased how Bueckers can rating from all 3 ranges. She shot 6-of-12 on 2-point jumpers, most commonly pull-ups with the Sooners retaining their put up gamers again in drop protection towards the pick-and-roll, and hit six 3-pointers — matching her profession excessive — in 8 makes an attempt.
Despite the fact that Bueckers could not perhaps all the time handle the potency of that recreation — when she wanted simply 27 shot makes an attempt and 3 foul pictures to attain 40 issues — doing extra with much less used to be a constant theme during her profession. Bueckers posted a .628 true capturing share (TS%), which measures the capturing share important on completely 2-point makes an attempt to check the whole issues scored, together with 3s and loose throws, and used to be by no means underneath .600.
Amongst guards drafted with the highest decide up to now 20 years, handiest Kelsey Plum’s senior season at Washington (.657 TS%) has been extra environment friendly than Bueckers’ easiest seasons. Sooner than that, it is again to UConn’s 2001-02 name workforce, when Taurasi and Sue Chicken have been extra environment friendly than Bueckers as a part of a star-studded beginning 5 that incorporated Naismith Corridor of Famer Swin Money, All-Superstar Asjha Jones and longtime WNBA starter Tamika Williams-Jeter.
Enjoying on any such stacked workforce, Chicken leaned slightly extra pass-first than Bueckers, averaging 14.4 PPG and 5.9 APG whilst profitable nationwide participant of the yr honors as a senior with a 21% utilization fee. Nonetheless, she could be the most efficient ancient comp for Bueckers as a scorer.
Chicken by no means averaged greater than 14.7 PPG within the WNBA, however she in a similar fashion took over video games along with her scoring when important — maximum particularly with 14 issues within the fourth quarter of the Seattle Typhoon’s Recreation 5 win over Taurasi and the Phoenix Mercury en path to the 2018 WNBA championship.
“It’s virtually assured that Paige Bueckers would be the No. 1 total decide.”@Andraya_Carter and @chiney smash down why Paige is predicted to be the primary off the board within the WNBA draft %.twitter.com/FLN53ytfRy
— espnW (@espnW) April 8, 2025
Bad pick-and-roll operator
It is imaginable Bueckers has extra offensive attainable as a WNBA participant than she confirmed at UConn. In the end, Bueckers wasn’t used as incessantly as a pick-and-roll ball handler as Clark. According to Synergy Sports activities monitoring, Bueckers averaged simply 6.4 pick-and-rolls in keeping with recreation as a senior that led at once to both a shot, shuttle to the loose throw line or turnover by means of both her or from her preliminary move.
Distinction that to Clark, who ran 9.3 such pick-and-rolls in keeping with recreation as a senior at Iowa, after which used to be installed the ones scenarios much more incessantly within the WNBA. Consistent with 2nd Spectrum digicam monitoring, which incorporates all pick-and-rolls irrespective of the result, Clark’s 30.4 in keeping with recreation closing season led the WNBA.
As a result of we do not but know precisely how first-time head trainer Chris Koclanes will run the Dallas offense, we will be able to glance to the monitor file of Wings govt vp and GM Curt Miller as a information. Sooner than becoming a member of the USC training personnel in 2023, Koclanes spent 5 seasons as an assistant trainer below Miller with the Connecticut Solar and Los Angeles Sparks. Because the Sparks’ head trainer closing season, Miller known as for the second-most on-ball monitors in keeping with recreation within the WNBA, in keeping with 2nd Spectrum.
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When UConn trainer Geno Auriemma did put Bueckers in pick-and-roll scenarios this season, the effects have been abnormal. The Huskies averaged 1.2 issues in keeping with play, easiest of any ball handler with a minimum of 100 qualifying pick-and-rolls, and shot an efficient 62% from the sector (counting 3-pointers as 1.5 box targets to mirror their added worth). That is the easiest moderate for any pick-and-roll ball handler on that stage of quantity since Oregon’s Maite Cazorla in 2018-19.
As a result of Bueckers is a major scoring danger, WNBA groups will continuously be compelled to dedicate two defenders to her in a pick-and-roll, growing alternatives for Bueckers to seek out open teammates as a distributor. That is one of the crucial giant evolutions we noticed from Clark all the way through her rookie season. She went from 6.0 APG over the hole 13-game stretch to 9.7 the rest of the time table. Most effective Courtney Vandersloot, with 10.0 in keeping with recreation in 2020, has ever averaged extra.
Flexible defender
After I when put next Bueckers to Clark coming into the 2024 Ultimate 4, protection used to be the purpose in her choose. On an injury-plagued UConn workforce that usually began only one participant (2024 first-round decide Aaliyah Edwards) 6 toes or taller, 5-11 Bueckers stepped ahead as an unbelievable paint defender, main the workforce in blocks in keeping with recreation.
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With Sturdy’s arrival and 6-4 freshman Jana El Alfy wholesome, Bueckers returned to a extra conventional defensive position at the perimeter. Nevertheless, Bueckers’ mixture of steals and blocks used to be spectacular. She posted a career-high 3.5 steals in keeping with 100 opponent performs and blocked 3% of opponent 2-point makes an attempt.
The checklist of top-five selections in my database who’ve reached either one of the ones thresholds is affected by stars: Money, Jones, Taurasi, Alana Beard, Angel McCoughtry, Maya Moore, Candace Parker, Devereaux Peters and Gabby Williams. (By the way, LSU ahead Aneesah Morrow can even qualify if she’s taken on this yr’s height 5.)
Given Bueckers’ small stature and what is going to most probably be a heavy offensive load, I doubt she shall be a defensive standout like probably the most gamers in that workforce. Nonetheless, it is any other indication of ways Bueckers’ talent to learn performs and measurement for some degree guard make her treasured. Enjoying in what might be an undersized perimeter trio with 5-8 Arike Ogunbowale and 5-11 stopper DiJonai Carrington with the Wings, Bueckers would have the ability to sliding down to protect some small forwards when Carrington is serving as an on-ball defender.
Expectancies as a rookie
Chicken and Clark proportion the respect of being the lone WNBA beginners at once out of school ever to moderate 10 PPG and 5 APG of their first season, a bunch Bueckers must aspire to enroll in. Simply 11 gamers, together with Ogunbowale, reached the ones marks closing season. Upload in Bueckers’ potency and defensive contributions and doing so would right away put her within the higher part of WNBA level guards.
Like Clark, Bueckers may just quite get her workforce again to the playoffs as a rookie. Dallas is 2 seasons got rid of from going 22-18 in 2023, and whilst the Wings have misplaced two key contributors of that workforce in forwards Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally, they have got added Carrington and forwards Myisha Hines-Allen and NaLyssa Smith.
Bueckers herself may turn out the most important improve, given how little manufacturing Dallas were given from level guards Jacy Sheldon and Sevgi Uzun, each now departed. They mixed for 9.8 PPG and 5.5 APG, manufacturing Bueckers on my own may just plausibly fit whilst dramatically making improvements to upon their 28% 3-point capturing.
It is not sensible for Bueckers to position up the type of monster per-game stats Clark did as a rookie, when she completed within the height 10 in WNBA scoring and led the league in assists. Bueckers may by no means achieve the ones heights, and Chicken’s Naismith Corridor of Status profession displays it is imaginable to be one of the crucial league’s easiest gamers anyway. There is precedent for what we will be able to be expecting, however Bueckers will carve her personal trail as a professional.
