‘Every so often the stats do not inform the entire tale’: How NFL

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  Jeff LegwoldApr 6, 2025, 06:45 AM ET

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  Jeff Legwold covers the Denver Broncos at ESPN. He has lined the Broncos for greater than twenty years and in addition assists with NFL draft protection, becoming a member of ESPN in 2013. He has been a member of the Professional Soccer Corridor of Repute Board of Selectors since 1999, too. Jeff up to now lined the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Expenses and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans at earlier stops previous to ESPN.

One of the vital maximum confounding, career-challenging selections within the NFL draft come when the attention check crashes head-on into the numbers. When a participant appears to be like NFL-ready in the best way he strikes, however there are not sufficient have an effect on performs at the stat sheet to compare the off-the-charts measurables.

“I feel you price upside as a result of you wish to have expansion, however we do not need a farm gadget,” Miami Dolphins trainer Mike McDaniel mentioned. “You do not need the posh of redshirting them within the Nationwide Soccer League.”

Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart, the No. 25 prospect on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s Giant Board, is a part of a deep workforce of edge rushers on this 2025 draft magnificence, a place on the epicenter of the “prospective vs. manufacturing” debate.

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He is additionally the highest-rated participant on this yr’s balancing act of marrying long run NFL prospective with on-field manufacturing. And his analysis may well be outlined through the quantity “4.5” — as in, 4.5 overall faculty sacks and precisely 1.5 in every of his 3 seasons.

“Every so often the stats do not inform the entire tale,” Stewart mentioned on the mix. “It is all concerning the movie. And whilst you have a look at the movie, you’ll be able to in point of fact see what is going on for essentially the most section.”

Stewart, along side Mykel Williams (Georgia) and Landon Jackson (Arkansas), are this draft’s high examples of what has turn into a annually conundrum for NFL scouts and entrance place of business executives. We talked to folks across the league about how decision-makers strive against with big-time upside vs. a loss of manufacturing in Spherical 1 and why the characteristics are once in a while too excellent to cross up — even supposing it method having a bet their very own futures on that prospective.

THE 21-YEAR-OLD STEWART is a just-how-you-draw-it-up prospect. He measured 6-foot-5 and weighed 267 kilos on the mix. He ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.59 seconds, higher than 3 operating backs, 5 large receivers and all 14 tight leads to attendance who ran. He additionally had a 40-inch vertical bounce (tied for fourth best amongst all avid gamers on the mix) and a vast bounce of 10-foot-11 (tied for 7th amongst all avid gamers).

“[That type of performance] will all the time get your consideration,” a scout for an AFC group mentioned. “There don’t seem to be many of us on the earth who can do this.”

It raises the query of ways a participant so large, robust, fast and speedy had best 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss over 37 faculty video games. To place that into viewpoint, Penn State’s Abdul Carter — who many within the league imagine is the most efficient participant to be had on this magnificence — had 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in 16 video games ultimate season. However Stewart has tantalizing analytical metrics that rope scouts proper again in. Regardless of his meager manufacturing, his moderate time to first power ultimate season was once 2.43 seconds, the most efficient mark within the FBS (Carter clocked in at 2.46 seconds).

“As a trainer, should you assume you might be price a s— in any respect, you are going to watch a man with the entire characteristics and say, ‘I will get [the sacks] out of him, I will get him to play,'” an established former NFL defensive position trainer mentioned. “The ones are the pound-the-table guys. You do not need plateau avid gamers, guys who’re as excellent as they’ll be. You need prospective.”

Stewart mentioned he has been requested through coaches, scouts and group of workers executives about his statistical profile. He pointed to the Aggies’ intensity and opposing quarterbacks getting a rid of the ball temporarily to keep away from power from the Texas A&M entrance. The Aggies’ protection was once twenty second within the FBS in power charge (40.3%) regardless of one of the crucial lowest blitz charges (19.3%, which ranked a hundred and fifteenth).

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“I wasn’t a sack-chasing warrior,” Stewart mentioned. “I simply sought after to turn into the most efficient participant for my group. And once in a while the stats do not display that. Every so often, I’ve to play lifeless to rights, and once in a while I simply could not end or simply could not get there in time.”

Stewart is not on my own in fielding those questions. Georgia’s Williams, who’s ranked No. 22 general through Kiper, had 14 sacks in 3 seasons for the Bulldogs, together with best 5 in 2024. Williams instructed groups in fresh weeks he was once “lower than 60%” now and then ultimate season on account of an ankle damage he suffered in Week 1.

Arkansas’ Jackson additionally suits the invoice. He had 16 sacks in 3 seasons, however the 6-foot-6, 264-pounder was once so dominant in mix exercises that more than one scouts on other groups mentioned they had to rewatch his recreation tape. They famous that Jackson was once an earnest edge setter in run protection, however they did not see the explosiveness he confirmed in Indianapolis within the cross rush.

Williams mentioned on the mix that some when compared him to every other Georgia edge rusher who was once a statistical interest — Travon Walker, the No. 1 select of the 2022 draft. Walker was once one of the crucial draft’s maximum outstanding potential-vs.-production debates of the previous decade.

“Travon was once particular on account of how large he was once and how briskly he may transfer,” Williams mentioned. “He is very flexible, like myself. In order that’s the place I feel the comparisons come from, however that is what made him particular. What he may do together with his dimension.”

WALKER DIDN’T CHECK the entire bins because the 2022 draft approached. He had 9.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss blended in 3 faculty seasons. However the 6-foot-5, 272-pound edge rusher was once intriguing on account of the uncommon, jaw-dropping moments he produced, even supposing they did not all the time lead to a take on or sack.

Main as much as that draft, scouts time and again cited Walker’s rundown of Alabama large receiver Agiye Corridor 24 yards downfield within the 2021 season’s nationwide championship recreation for instance of his distinctive ability set. He then grew to become in a mix day for the ages. Walker ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.51 seconds, the most efficient mark for all defensive linemen and 2d highest amongst edge rushers. His vertical jump of 35½ inches was once higher than all however two defensive linemen.

Travon Walker has blossomed after a gradual 2022 rookie season in Jacksonville, combining for 20.5 sacks the previous two seasons. Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire

“I preferred him,” an AFC scout mentioned. “However you end up answering for, ‘How’d he best have one sack as a [sophomore]? How can a man that proficient have [seven] sacks in his ultimate two years?'”

Coaches, scouts and basic managers insist sacks are not the end-all-be-all when looking for cross rushers. However avid gamers whose abilities are transparent with out the easy-to-digest effects vex even the most efficient skill evaluators.

“In a gathering you might be all the time going to mention, ‘Let’s glance past those numbers and get extra information,’ or ‘Let’s dive into this extra, have a look at the scheme, how he was once coached, what he was once requested to do, the make-up, it all,'” mentioned an NFC basic supervisor. “The fellows with each characteristics and numbers, the ones are the straightforward calls. … A participant with the entire characteristics and no touchdowns, interceptions or sacks or no matter, the ones are difficult ‘Whys?'”

Walker ended up being the No. 1 select, with the Jaguars opting for him over Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, who was once considered the more secure variety because of his 14 sacks in 2021. Hutchinson was once decided on No. 2 general through the Lions. The early effects skewed to Hutchinson. Walker moved from defensive position to out of doors linebacker as a rookie, completing with best 3.5 sacks over 788 snaps. In the meantime, Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and completed 2d within the Defensive Rookie of the Yr vote casting. However Walker rewarded Jacksonville’s endurance with 10 sacks in 2023 and 10.5 ultimate season.

“It is all the time, when you find yourself at the clock, a decision about if, and when, you’re taking characteristics and what you assume the participant has within to be what you assume he will have to be,” the NFC basic supervisor mentioned.

SOMETIMES IT DOESN’T paintings. For each and every Walker and Odafe Oweh — a 2021 first-round draft select who had 0 sacks in his ultimate faculty season however had 10 for the Ravens in 2024 — there is a Vernon Gholston, whose elite characteristics did not translate after being drafted through the Jets with the 6th select in 2008.

However elite cross rushers are a few of the fastest to conform to the NFL, which is why some evaluators lean in slightly extra on prospective.

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“You simply assume, a tweak right here together with his arms, repair his stance, upload some energy, they will adapt speedy,” the previous defensive position trainer mentioned. “You need the ones guys that get to the quarterback. … If they have were given the characteristics, you’ll be able to take an opportunity. You’ll be able to get it proper greater than every other positions.”

Stewart hopes evaluators have a look at the entire image and spot all he believes he delivered to the Aggies’ protection — and would deliver to his new NFL house.

“[Box score] manufacturing is slightly puffed up,” he mentioned.