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Jeff Borzello
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Jeff Borzello
ESPN Group of workers Author
- Basketball recruiting insider.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Graduate of College of Delaware.
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Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf
ESPN Group of workers Author
- Covers faculty basketball
- Joined ESPN.com in 2011
- Graduate of Minnesota State College, Mankato
Apr 3, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
A showdown of the highest two groups from the most efficient convention in males’s faculty basketball. And a fight between the rustic’s highest protection and a traditionally environment friendly offense.
There is a reason why it is all chalk at the San Antonio River Stroll for the March Insanity finale — and our mavens are right here to damage down how every crew can win its Ultimate 4 matchup.
Learn their research for Florida vs. Auburn and Duke vs. Houston, together with deadly flaws and avid gamers every semifinalist will want to step up within the ultimate levels of the 2025 NCAA match.
Leap to:
Auburn-Florida | Houston-Duke
Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET, CBS
How Florida reached the Ultimate 4:
What we’ve got realized about Florida in March: Florida’s run over the second one 1/2 tells the tale of this crew’s season. Since Feb. 1, the Gators have misplaced most effective as soon as: 88-83 at Georgia on Feb. 25. They’ve encountered extra hassle than expected in contemporary weeks, however we’ve got realized you’ll by no means suppose they are out of a recreation sooner than it is over.
Down past due in opposition to back-to-back nationwide champion UConn? They figured it out in opposition to the Huskies. Alex Condon maintaining an ankle damage in opposition to Maryland within the Candy 16? They hung on till the 6-foot-11 standout returned to near out the double-digit victory. And all of us watched the livid comeback from a 10-point deficit within the ultimate mins in opposition to Texas Tech within the Elite 8. The Gators have 5 wins in opposition to top-20 KenPom groups by way of 14 or extra issues in March and refuse to surrender in opposition to excessive adversity. What we’ve got realized about them in March? They are extremely tricky to overcome.
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The participant who must step up: Alex Condon.
After his shaky defensive effort in opposition to Texas Tech big name Darrion Williams, Condon needs to be a greater defensive participant in area in opposition to Auburn. The Tigers are stacked with flexible skills at 6-7 or taller who’re at ease at the perimeter and within the submit. Like Texas Tech, they’ll check out to attract Condon out of doors then try to assault him off the dribble to get to the rim and rating. Williams was once superb every time Condon ended up in the ones eventualities, and Florida has a fleet of offensive choices. The Gators don’t want each and every participant on their roster to attain 15 issues, however they’ll want 6-11 Condon to play superb protection to advance to the identify recreation.
Possible deadly flaw: A power may be Florida’s doable flaw: its convenience stage in adversity.
The Gators regularly execute when down — they overcame a four-minute scoring drought in the second one 1/2 in their second-round win over UConn and a 10-point deficit within the ultimate six mins in opposition to Texas Tech within the Elite 8 — however the ones eventualities are dicier within the Ultimate 4. They know they are able to catch any opponent, which is riskier at this level than in December in opposition to North Carolina (allowed the Tar Heels to take the lead after being up 17 issues) or in January in opposition to South Carolina (overcame a 14-point second-half deficit to win by way of one level).
Does Florida have a solution to Johni Broome? I don’t believe any crew in The usa has a solution for Broome — a peak contender for each and every nationwide participant of the 12 months award — however Florida is provided to be assertive in opposition to him, which is the most efficient warring parties can do in opposition to a participant of his caliber. The Gators have a couple of avid gamers they are able to ship to aggressively protect 6-10 Broome with out worry that one participant’s foul hassle will destroy their shot at victory: Condon (6-11), Thomas Haugh (6-9), Rueben Chinyelu (6-10) and Micah Handlogten (7-1) are all choices. Despite the fact that Auburn forces Florida to modify numerous matchups and a Gators guard finally ends up on Broome, it would possibly not be a horrible mismatch.
Johni Broome had 18 issues in Auburn’s February loss to Florida. Todd Kirkland/Getty Pictures
Florida will win if: The Gators play the way in which they’ve for the previous month.
They’ve made 58% in their pictures throughout the arc and 38% in their 3-point makes an attempt since March. They’ve additionally had the most efficient offense in The usa over that extend. They understand how to pummel warring parties and will do it from each and every spot at the ground. And they’ve a singular mixture of enjoy and skill.
Walter Clayton Jr. is an AP first-team All-American. Alijah Martin is taking part in his moment Ultimate 4 in 3 years. Will Richard is one among six upperclassmen at the crew. Plus, they’ve period that few groups can fit and are tenth in adjusted defensive potency. — Myron Medcalf
How Auburn reached the Ultimate 4:
What we’ve got realized about Auburn in March: A 1-3 stretch getting into the NCAA match known as Auburn’s ceiling into query, however the ones 3 losses got here in opposition to Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M — and we now have since realized that that is nonetheless the similar crew that misplaced one recreation between Dec. 4 and March 4 at the back of the management of Johni Broome.
Sure, Alabama State had a short lived lead over the Tigers within the first around, however the Tigers in the long run received by way of 20. They went on to overcome a excellent Creighton crew by way of 12 in the second one around and grasp Michigan standout Danny Wolf scoreless for the general 13 mins in their Candy 16 win. Then they overcame Broome’s midgame damage at hand Michigan State its first NCAA match loss to an SEC crew below Tom Izzo.
The participant who must step up: Chad Baker-Mazara.
The 6-7 standout has battled via hip and shoulder accidents in contemporary weeks, however the Tigers will want the most efficient model of the All-SEC third-team variety to supply within the ultimate level of the season. He is an crucial participant on each ends of the ground for the Tigers, who’ve received with big name energy (see: Broome) and intensity. Baker-Mazara has registered double figures simply as soon as since March 4 and does not seem like he is 100%, however Auburn will want the whole lot he may give to avenge the February loss to one among the freshest groups within the nation.
Possible deadly flaw: Pictures from 3 have no longer been falling.
The Tigers have one among The usa’s highest avid gamers in Broome to head with standouts akin to Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones. They’re proficient at each and every place at the ground, which has been enough all season, however they’ve long past chilly from past the arc. They’ve made simply 31% in their 3-point makes an attempt in 4 NCAA match video games, which hasn’t price them up to now, however now they’ll face a Florida crew that went 13-for-33 (39.4%) from 3 in opposition to them in February, when the Tigers have been simply 7-for-22 (31.8%). Any other chilly night time may just result in Auburn’s removal.
How can Auburn restrict Florida from occurring runs? Florida’s first-round recreation in opposition to Norfolk State showcased the extremes of its offense, The usa’s highest since March 1, which scored 53 issues within the ultimate 16:45 of legislation. (Had that been a 48-minute NBA recreation, Florida would were on tempo to attain 151 issues.) Auburn witnessed that burst doable firsthand in its 90-81 loss to Florida in February — the Tigers had a nine-point lead within the first 1/2 sooner than the Gators ended it on a 37-18 run within the ultimate 12 mins to hold a 10-point lead into the locker room. Auburn will have to first focal point on Walter Clayton Jr., regularly the catalyst of the ones runs, and no longer permit him to hit the massive pictures that shift the momentum. The Tigers additionally cannot be afraid to gradual the sport down or name an early timeout to restrict the Gators’ alternatives to get their offense rolling.
play
0:54
How Bruce Pearl is motivating Auburn forward of Ultimate 4
Bruce Pearl breaks down his mindset going into the Ultimate 4 and previews Auburn’s matchup in opposition to Florida.
Auburn will win if: The Tigers restrict Clayton’s have an effect on at the result.
Auburn has a couple of defenders it might probably use to corral the Florida big name — and can want they all Saturday. The NCAA match has been a exhibit for the All-The usa guard, however the Gators are a considerably other crew when he has a difficult night time. If the Tigers could make it tricky for him, they’ll have an opportunity in opposition to a crew that scored 90 issues in opposition to them in February.
Trainer Bruce Pearl wishes a recreation plan that does not permit Clayton to do no matter he needs at the court docket. — Myron Medcalf
Florida vs. Auburn predictions
Jeff Borzello: Florida wins, 82-79
Myron Medcalf: Florida wins, 88-84
Joe Lunardi: Florida wins, 85-80
Neil Paine: Auburn wins, 80-78
Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET, CBS
How Duke reached the Ultimate 4:
What we’ve got realized about Duke in March: There wasn’t a lot we did not learn about Duke going into the NCAA match, however the Blue Devils have lived as much as each and every expectation we had of them on Variety Sunday.
When you have been involved they inflated their numbers because of mediocre ACC pageant, they’ve responded each and every query. They put forth staggeringly environment friendly offensive performances in the second one around in opposition to Baylor and within the Candy 16 in opposition to Arizona, then held Alabama — the country’s No. 1 scoring offense — to 65 issues and under 0.90 issues in line with ownership within the Elite 8. That was once most effective the second one time in two seasons the Purple Tide failed to achieve that per-possession threshold.
Something we did be told was once that the instant hasn’t been too giant for Kon Knueppel, who averaged 20.5 issues and four.0 assists with terrific performances within the Candy 16 and Elite 8.
The participant who must step up: Tyrese Proctor.
It must be a large night time for Proctor. One would surmise Houston’s protection will focal point on proscribing Cooper Flagg and Knueppel, which might give Proctor some shotmaking alternatives. He has been in terrific shape during the last few weeks, making 20 3s in a three-game stretch in opposition to Louisville, Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor. Then after an off night time in opposition to Arizona, he went for 17 issues on 10 pictures in opposition to Alabama. He shoots higher than 41% from 3-point vary and has been taking part in with self belief. His perimeter taking pictures may well be had to chill out the Houston protection.
Tyrese Proctor had 17 issues within the Elite 8 win over Alabama. AP Picture/Julia Demaree Nikhinson
Possible deadly flaw: Relative formative years.
From a group of workers viewpoint, there may be no longer a lot. Duke has measurement, taking pictures, ball handlers, shot creators and shotmakers. From a steadiness viewpoint, there may be nonetheless no longer a lot. The Blue Devils are elite at each ends of the ground, possessing the best offense within the historical past of the KenPom database and a top-five protection to head with it.
If there may be the rest, it will be whether or not a crew that begins 3 novices can win a countrywide championship in this sort of transfer-heavy panorama, the place groups are mechanically averaging beginning lineups with avid gamers who’re 22 or 23 years previous. The Blue Devils have appeared unfazed by way of the rest thrown at them up to now this season, even though. Flagg and Knueppel play with such poise and self belief, and, as one ACC trainer identified to me sooner than the match, Khaman Maluach does not do a lot more than dunk, rebound and block pictures (all at an elite stage, after all) — can a second actually be too giant for him?
What’s going to be key for Duke’s offense if Houston can restrict the Blue Devils’ dribble penetration? Houston has the country’s highest protection, and the Cougars excel at combating warring parties from attacking the rim off the jump. Duke, in the meantime, has 4 avid gamers at the ground always who can put force at the protection, forcing them into rotations and to cave in within the paint — sooner than both completing on the rim, kicking it out to a shooter or throwing a lob to Maluach.
Can the Blue Devils proceed to try this in opposition to Houston’s protection? It is a legitimate query.
One house the place Houston’s protection is doubtlessly inclined, on the other hand, is at the back of the arc: The Cougars permit groups to shoot 3s, score twelfth within the Large 12 in 3-point strive charge defensively. And the Blue Devils are able to profiting from that. They took just about 45% in their box function makes an attempt from 3-point vary in ACC play and made just about 40% of the ones makes an attempt.
play
1:57
Bilas explains how Duke close down Alabama’s offense
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams damage down Duke’s emphatic win over Alabama within the Elite 8.
Duke will win if: The Blue Devils keep the route.
In the event that they play their highest recreation (and even 90%), there may be no longer a crew within the nation that may beat them. In fact, they want to proceed to do what were given them up to now. It’ll be laborious to overcome Houston constantly with dribble penetration, however they’ve to make pictures from the fringe. Maluach is this sort of presence within, however their rim coverage takes successful when he is at the bench, so they’ll want to keep out of foul hassle. And in opposition to Houston’s elite offensive rebounding, additionally they want to crash the defensive glass, particularly after appearing some doable vulnerabilities in opposition to Baylor and Arizona.
Duke, with its mixture of measurement, taking pictures and Flagg, must have the entire solutions, even though. — Jeff Borzello
How Houston reached the Ultimate 4:
What we’ve got realized about Houston in March: The offensive growth is actual.
Previously few NCAA tournaments, Houston’s offense had fallen flat in giant moments. In 2022, it got here in opposition to Villanova within the Elite 8, when the Cougars scored simply 44 issues. In 2023, they struggled in two of 3 video games. And ultimate season, they scored most effective 51 issues in a Candy 16 loss to Duke. That did not occur this 12 months. Houston scored no less than 1.17 issues in line with ownership in 3 of 4 video games, nonetheless scoring 1.08 in its worst offensive efficiency of the Dance whilst making a mean of 9 3s in line with recreation.
Now we have been pronouncing all season that that is the most efficient offensive crew Kelvin Sampson has had in Houston, and the Cougars are proving us proper up to now.
The participant who must step up: J’Wan Roberts.
Roberts was once taking part in like a sound All-American on the halfway level of the season. Over an eight-game stretch between mid-January and early February, Roberts averaged 16.9 issues and six.5 rebounds whilst taking part in greater than 35 mins in line with recreation. He hasn’t been the similar since, averaging 8.8 issues and 5.8 rebounds during the last 13 video games. (He ignored two video games within the Large 12 match with an ankle damage.) He must be at his highest at each ends of the ground Saturday.
Roberts has additionally picked up 4 fouls in two of his previous 3 video games, taking part in simply 16 mins in opposition to Tennessee because of foul hassle. He has to stick at the ground. It might be an enormous raise for Houston if he could cause Khaman Maluach some problems early.
That is J’Wan Roberts’ moment travel to the Ultimate 4 with Houston. AP Picture/Michael Conroy
Possible deadly flaw: It is not as simple to pinpoint because it was once the previous few years.
Houston is without doubt one of the highest 3-point taking pictures groups within the nation, making just about 40% of its 3-point makes an attempt, after no longer score within the peak 110 nationally in that class since 2018. And as we discussed previous, it is the Cougars’ highest offense (by way of some distance) since Sampson took over in 2014.
In the event that they do lose Saturday, even though, there are a few issues to look at. First is the foul disparity: Houston ranks No. 322 nationally in unfastened throw makes an attempt in line with recreation whilst score within the 200s in defensive unfastened throw charge. Purdue and Tennessee shot extra unfastened throws than Houston. The second one is Houston’s propensity to permit 3-point makes an attempt: The Cougars contest 3s, however they enable groups to shoot them. All 4 warring parties within the NCAA match have tried no less than 20 3s. If Duke, one of the crucial highest 3-point taking pictures groups within the nation, makes an attempt 25 3s, glance out.
How can the rustic’s highest protection gradual the best offense within the KenPom technology (i.e., since 1996-97)? Houston goes to have to make use of its physicality and ball force to take Duke out of its rhythm.
When the Blue Devils are swinging the ball round and attacking the rim off the jump, kicking it out to their quartet of perimeter shooters, they’re inconceivable to prevent. However the Cougars are elite at preserving groups clear of the rim, permitting simply 21.8 issues within the paint in line with recreation whilst additionally score within the peak 5 nationally in block share. Duke additionally hasn’t confronted a crew within the NCAA match that may flip groups over like Houston is able to doing. The Blue Devils had some problems with transition protection in opposition to Arizona and Alabama — even though that hasn’t been a seasonlong downside — and the Cougars may just to find good fortune going that path.
Houston makes offenses uncomfortable like no different crew within the nation can. Issues would possibly not be simple for Duke.
play
0:35
Houston takes down Tennessee to achieve seventh Ultimate 4
Tennessee we could the clock run down as Houston celebrates attaining its 7th Ultimate 4 in program historical past.
Houston will win if: The Cougars’ physicality and enjoy win out.
They’re going to glance to throw Duke off its recreation from the outlet tip. They’re bodily defensively, they’re bodily offensively, they force the ball and so they assault the offensive glass. The whole lot is designed to make warring parties uncomfortable. Duke hasn’t observed the rest adore it within the NCAA match — or all season. The Blue Devils were in a position to play with such a lot freedom at the offensive finish of their previous few video games; can Houston rattle them early?
There may be additionally the enjoy issue: Houston is without doubt one of the oldest groups within the nation, stuffed with avid gamers who’ve performed numerous NCAA match video games. L.J. Cryer received a countrywide championship, and Roberts has been to a Ultimate 4. Sampson has coached within the semifinals sooner than. May that make a distinction someday Saturday? — Jeff Borzello
Duke vs. Houston predictions
Jeff Borzello: Duke wins, 70-68
Myron Medcalf: Duke wins, 74-70
Joe Lunardi: Houston wins, 75-70
Neil Paine: Duke wins, 65-64
