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Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf
ESPN Group of workers Author
- Covers school basketball
- Joined ESPN.com in 2011
- Graduate of Minnesota State College, Mankato
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Jeff Borzello
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Jeff Borzello
ESPN Group of workers Author
- Basketball recruiting insider.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Graduate of College of Delaware.
Mar 30, 2025, 10:15 PM ET
The lads’s Ultimate 4 is about — and it is all No. 1 seeds for the primary time since 2008.
The Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers will open the semifinal motion at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, adopted by means of the Houston Cougars and Duke Blue Devils at 8:49 p.m. ET (each on CBS).
With all chalk at the San Antonio River Stroll, who do our faculty basketball professionals see dealing with off within the nationwide championship on April 7?
They damage down how each and every staff reached the NCAA match nationwide semifinals and its keys to advancing to the name sport and in addition are expecting the winners. (Trace: They agree on one matchup, however no longer the opposite.)
Bounce to: Auburn vs. Florida | Duke vs. Houston
Ultimate 4 preview
What to find out about Florida
The No. 1 issue that helped Florida achieve the Ultimate 4: No staff in The usa has been ready to show video games of their desire with devastating runs the way in which the Gators have.
Down 9 issues with 3:14 to play towards Texas Tech, they ended the sport on an 18-4 run corresponding to ones now we have noticed from them more than one instances this season. Simply on this match, they outscored Maryland 47-33 in the second one half of in their Candy 16 win and had 53 issues in lower than 17 mins towards Norfolk State within the opening spherical.
They have got introduced those self same knockout punches towards different elite groups, too. Within the SEC match championship, Florida was once tied with Tennessee at 16 with 11:30 to play within the first half of. 8 mins later, the Gators had a 12-point lead.
Florida is school basketball’s identical of a house run hitter within the backside of the 9th inning. It is by no means over with the Gators on account of the way in which they may be able to clutch keep an eye on of video games, even if they appear out of achieve.
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Walter Clayton Jr.’s past due 3s propel Florida to the Ultimate 4
Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. hits a couple of take hold of 3-pointers past due to ship the Gators to the Ultimate 4.
Florida’s key towards Auburn: Walter Clayton Jr.’s brilliance.
The Ultimate 4 is all about stars. The groups that experience gamers who shine below the brightest lighting fixtures are the groups that in the end lower down the nets and win nationwide championships. There’s a reason why we point out Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, Kemba Walker, Mateen Cleaves and Jay Williams once we talk about the best NCAA match runs. Megastar energy reigns. And subsequent to Cooper Flagg, Florida would possibly have the most important megastar of all of them in Clayton Jr. His sheer will and ability might be the deciding elements in whether or not the Gators win the name. — Myron Medcalf
What to find out about Auburn
The No. 1 issue that helped Auburn achieve the Ultimate 4: Tightening up defensively.
When Auburn had its struggles down the stretch of the season, dropping 3 of 4 video games, the Tigers mainly fell aside defensively. They allowed a minimum of 1.13 issues in line with ownership in all 3 of the defeats, committing too many fouls and suffering to shield the rim. Because the NCAA match tipped, despite the fact that, they’ve regarded a lot more just like the staff that began the season 27-2. Bruce Pearl’s staff has completed a a lot better process proscribing simple alternatives, permitting simplest Creighton to achieve one level in line with ownership.
Denver Jones is without doubt one of the elite perimeter defenders within the nation, the Tigers shield the 3-point arc extremely neatly and Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell offer protection to the paint. Restricting fouls can be key, despite the fact that.
Johni Broome and the Auburn Tigers punched the final Ultimate 4 price tag with Sunday’s win over Michigan State. Brett Davis-Imagn Pictures
Auburn’s key towards Florida: Johni Broome.
Broome took a clumsy fall halfway via the second one half of of Sunday’s Elite 8 win over Michigan State and instantly went to the locker room, providing phrases of encouragement to Chaney Johnson and giving his oldsters an replace at the manner. It gave the impression of his night time — and most likely extra — was once over. However Broome got here out of the locker room after simplest 5 mins of sport motion and checked again in then temporarily buried a 3-pointer to present Auburn a spice up.
He appeared wholesome sufficient to accomplish at a prime degree this Saturday, however he’ll wish to be at 100% to compete with Florida’s deep and proficient frontcourt. — Jeff Borzello
Florida vs. Auburn prediction
Jeff Borzello: Florida wins, 82-79
Joe Lunardi: Florida wins, 85-80
Myron Medcalf: Florida wins, 88-84
Florida led the primary assembly between those groups by means of as many as 21 issues prior to successful 90-81 at the highway. The Gators made 13 3s towards the Tigers’ SEC-best 3-point protection, and Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. cemented his case as the most productive guard within the nation. Florida hasn’t bogged down since then, and neither has Clayton, who has placed on one of the vital all-time late-game shot-making performances on this NCAA match. Can Denver Jones prohibit Clayton’s blank seems to be?
The Gators have the scale and intensity inside of to make existence tricky for Johni Broome and will win in additional tactics than the Tigers can. — Jeff Borzello
What to find out about Houston
The No. 1 issue that helped Houston achieve the Ultimate 4: 3-point capturing.
The straightforward solution can be D — and we will be able to get to the Cougars’ elite defensive unit. However the largest distinction between this 12 months’s staff and former iterations of Kelvin Sampson’s program is the Cougars’ skill to persistently make pictures from the fringe. They lead the rustic in 3-point capturing, making just about 40% in their pictures from in the back of the arc, with 3 starters capturing 42% or higher.
Houston has averaged 9 made 3s in line with sport within the NCAA match, and it was once ready to take all of the existence out of Tennessee within the Elite 8 with dagger 3 after dagger 3 past due within the sport. The Cougars hit 5 treys within the ultimate 5:30 on Sunday, ruining any likelihood of a Volunteers comeback.
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Houston’s key towards Duke: Protection > offense.
Saturday’s Ultimate 4 showdown towards Duke will function the best offense within the KenPom technology (since 1996-97) towards the country’s perfect protection. Can the Cougars decelerate the Blue Devils? Duke has been torching groups all season, in a position to beating fighters in a number of tactics, whether or not it is by way of Cooper Flagg, 3-point capturing or the use of its awesome measurement to complete across the rim.
Houston will wish to muck up the sport, ensure that it remains most commonly in a half-court environment after which attempt to lean on its enjoy and physicality to get Duke’s younger stars out in their rhythm. Will the most productive protection be higher than the most productive offense? Houston has to pray that is the case. — Jeff Borzello
What to find out about Duke
The No. 1 issue that helped Duke achieve the Ultimate 4: Duke is solely extra proficient than some other staff.
Cooper Flagg and fellow NBA potentialities Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel deserve many of the credit score, however the fleet of ability down the roster has enhanced the entirety that trainer Jon Scheyer has completed with it.
It has made practices extra aggressive. It has allowed the staff to triumph over adversity (see: successful the ACC match name with Flagg injured). And it signifies that within the ultimate degree of the season, the gamers coming off the bench can be starters for plenty of different groups — Caleb Foster was once a top-30 recruit in highschool, Isaiah Evans might be decided on early in the second one spherical of this summer season’s NBA draft, Mason Gillis helped Purdue achieve the nationwide name sport a 12 months in the past and Patrick Ngongba II was once twenty sixth in ESPN’s rating of the 2024 recruiting magnificence. What number of groups are bringing gamers of that pedigree off the bench?
Most sensible to backside, there simply is not a staff within the box that may bring together a related choice of elite gamers.
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Bilas explains how Duke close down Alabama’s offense
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams damage down Duke’s emphatic win over Alabama within the Elite 8.
Duke’s key towards Houston: The Blue Devils’ skill to give protection to the rim and shield the paint.
This Duke staff has one of the vital height defensive gadgets in fresh program historical past. Towards an Alabama squad that made 25 3-pointers within the Candy 16, the Blue Devils compelled the Pink Tide into awkward, off-balance pictures. Alabama performs on the quickest tempo in The usa, however Duke grew to become that pace into chaos, proscribing Alabama’s choices across the rim.
The Blue Devils are assertive with their inside protection, whether or not it is Khaman Maluach changing and blocking off pictures, Cooper Flagg guarding gamers for 90 toes or others difficult fighters at the perimeter then feeding them to the Blue Devils’ large males. Alabama was once outscored within the paint by means of double digits Saturday, partly as a result of Duke does no longer give opposing groups area to get relaxed within the submit. — Myron Medcalf
Houston vs. Duke predictions
Jeff Borzello: Duke wins, 70-68
Myron Medcalf: Duke wins, 74-70
That is going to be an out of this world distinction of elite offense as opposed to elite protection, that includes one of the vital youngest groups within the nation as opposed to one of the vital oldest groups. The issue for the Cougars is that the Blue Devils even have an elite protection to head with their traditionally just right offense.
Duke can transfer the entirety and is in a position to run just right shooters off the 3-point line with Khaman Maluach within the paint to give protection to the rim. Houston will attempt to disrupt Duke, however the Blue Devils’ offense has been unfazed by means of just about anything else all season. That may proceed in San Antonio. — Jeff Borzello
Joe Lunardi: Houston wins, 75-70
Duke learners Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II make up as just right a frontcourt as any school trainer may just need. They’re additionally 18, 19, 18 and 19 years outdated, respectively. Houston will counter with J’Wan Roberts (age 23, 170 occupation video games), Ja’Vier Francis (22, 128 video games), Terrance Arceneaux (22, 83 video games) and Joseph Tugler (20, 66 video games). This is a huge distinction in enjoy and basketball adulthood.
In most cases, I might nonetheless select ability over enjoy, however it isn’t just like the Houston guys are unaccomplished. The Cougars have gained 159 video games within the J’Wan Roberts-Kelvin Sampson technology. That is their 2d Ultimate 4 in combination. The Cougars, at 17 victories in a row, too can declare the country’s longest present successful streak. They have got misplaced simply as soon as since November and feature misplaced simplest as soon as in law all season.
It is a fabulous matchup in each and every manner, however I am taking the skilled veterans over essentially the most proficient learners within the match. — Joe Lunardi
