Mike ClayMar 27, 2025, 06:56 AM ET
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- Mike Clay is a senior creator for delusion soccer and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Corridor of Status. His projections energy the ESPN Myth Soccer recreation, and he additionally seems on “Myth Soccer Now” and the Myth Center of attention Soccer podcast.
If you are no longer already conscious, I am the human who creates the delusion soccer participant projections right here at ESPN.
Despite the fact that some would swear the projection numbers are completely automatic or randomly generated, I guarantee you they don’t seem to be. I’ve a long procedure that comes to a mix of statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is the place this column in point of fact is useful. To start each and every NFL season, I’m going staff by means of staff and punctiliously analyze ancient league, staff, trainer and participant tendencies. From there, at the participant point, I generate projected dropback, raise and goal stocks for each and every participant.
I lately finished that procedure and — identical as in recent times — took notes. Underneath are my observations, in addition to a short lived utility to delusion soccer in 2025.
You should definitely additionally take a look at my detailed 2025 NFL projection information, which is mechanically up to date during the offseason.
1. Since stepping right into a beginning position in Week 8 of the 2023 season, Trey McBride has a huge 28.4% goal proportion (9.0 consistent with recreation). He is averaging 6.8 receptions, 69.3 yards and 15.4 delusion issues consistent with recreation all through the span. He was once the poster boy for dangerous TD good fortune in 2024, totaling 3 ratings (two receiving) in spite of completing moment on the place in objectives, catches, yards, finish zone objectives (10) and delusion issues. McBride’s TE-high 7.9 anticipated TD overall speaks to his dangerous good fortune and, regardless that he additionally did not ranking a lot in 2023 (3 TDs on 108 objectives), he is a candidate for a large development within the house in 2025 (in spite of what I am about to show in Merchandise No. 2).
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2. Take a look at the share of Arizona’s offensive TDs which were passes since Kyler Murray arrived (beginning with 2019): 53%, 55%, 53%, 53%, 51%, 54%. That is near-impossible consistency and, after all, offers us a sexy just right thought of what to anticipate in 2025.
3. Offensive EPA and offensive TDs correlate extraordinarily neatly (r2= 0.86), however outliers at all times in finding their method into the combination. Remaining season, the Jaguars (18th in offensive EPA, twenty seventh in offensive TDs) had the “unluckiest” offense, with the Cardinals (eighth, fifteenth) and Rams (thirteenth, twentieth) simply in the back of. Alternatively, the Panthers (twenty fifth, twelfth) have been simply the “luckiest” (extra in this later), with the Colts (twenty first, twelfth) and Vikings (sixteenth, ninth) subsequent in line. Be careful for the regression monster in 2025.
4. With the intention to in point of fact assessment Bijan Robinson, we want to cut up his 2024 season into two segments. All the way through Weeks 1-5, Robinson averaged 17.0 touches, 87.2 yards and 13.5 delusion issues (twenty fourth at RB). He scored one TD and cleared 18 touches as soon as. From Week 6 on, Robinson averaged 23.3 touches, 120.9 yards and 22.8 delusion issues (first at RB). He scored 14 TDs and had 18-plus touches in all however one recreation (16 in a Week 11 blowout loss). Getting into his age-23 marketing campaign and dealing in an Atlanta offense that was once third-run-heaviest within the league final season, Robinson is primed for an enormous statistical season.
5. Mark Andrews is a difficult analysis after an peculiar profession flip in 2024, through which he may also be thought to be lucky to complete TE8 in delusion PPG after top-5 finishes the prior 5 seasons. After dealing with a goal proportion within the 22-28% vary all through the 2019-23 seasons, Andrews dipped to fifteen% in 2024 (twentieth) and completed twentieth in objectives, 14th in catches, 9th in yards and primary in TDs amongst tight ends. Andrews has at all times been extraordinarily environment friendly when centered (he is by no means completed less than 5th in YPRR), however he is additionally by no means been reasonably as TD dependent (11 TDs in 2024 have been a profession excessive and his 16.2% TD price was once method above his prior profession price of seven.1%). Andrews was once bailed out by means of the TD outlier (which stemmed from a Baltimore offense that averaged a ludicrous and most likely unsustainable 3.6 TDs consistent with recreation) and he’ll want to jump again within the goal house as a way to go back to elite TE1 manufacturing.
6. Dalton Kincaid did not transparent 13.1 delusion issues in one recreation final season, which is lovely onerous to consider while you imagine he treated a 20.3% goal proportion (5.8 consistent with recreation) in a Josh Allen-led offense that averaged 3.6 touchdowns consistent with recreation (the best possible ever by means of an Allen offense). Kincaid treated seven-plus objectives in six of 13 regular-season video games, however by no means cleared 53 yards in one day out and located the top zone most effective two times. He completed fifteenth at tight result in objectives in spite of 4 neglected video games, however was once twenty sixth in catches and twenty eighth in yards because of an unsightly 59% catch price and six.0 YPT. Kincaid’s pedigree (2023 first-rounder), heavy utilization and the sturdy Buffalo offense supply hope for a Yr 3 jump, however he is dangerous after such an underwhelming 2024.
7. Previous I discussed the discrepancy between the Panthers’ offensive EPA and TD output. Some wanted context right here: The offense was once horrific all through Weeks 1-7 (-7.5 EPA consistent with recreation, which ranked twenty eighth), however cast from Week 8 on (+3.2, seventeenth). Carolina ended the season by means of scoring two-plus offensive TDs in 10 consecutive video games, averaging 2.8 consistent with recreation all through the span. Every other jump ahead from Bryce Younger would be the key to getting this offense to the following point.
8. The pass-heaviest offense within the NFL? No doubt the Bengals. Cincinnati known as move at a price 10 share issues above anticipated in 2022, +7% in 2023 and +9% in 2024. That would possibly not exchange in 2025 with Joe Burrow underneath heart, and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at large receiver.
Bo Nix’s rookie season put him in particular corporate. What is going to he do for an encore? Dustin Bradford/Getty Pictures
9. Bo Nix scored 316.2 delusion issues final season, which ranks 5th all time by means of a rookie quarterback. The opposite 9 within the peak 10? Cam Newton, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, Robert Griffin III, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Andrew Good fortune and C.J. Stroud. That is some just right corporate and offers optimism that Nix is the true deal. After tossing most effective 5 TDs in his first seven video games, Nix threw 24 in his ultimate 10 outings (2.4 consistent with recreation). That incorporated no less than 3 move TDs in 3 of his ultimate 4 outings. Nix completed the steady season 6th in move makes an attempt, completions and move TDs (29), and 5th in carries (92-430-4 dashing line). Nix’s dual-threat talent is notable, as over the last decade there were most effective 34 cases of a QB with 200-plus move makes an attempt and 90-plus carries in a season. That team averaged 21.1 delusion PPG, 27 have been peak 10 at QB in delusion pts (18 have been peak 5) and none completed less than 18th. Nix is without doubt one of the 34 (it is a particularly spectacular record) and considered one of simply 3 novices on it (Daniels and Murray are the others). It is notable that Nix’s 6.66 YPA is lowest of the 34, however he did cross from 5.7 all through Weeks 1-7 to 7.4 in ultimate 10 video games. The longer term seems vibrant for Nix.
10. Talking of Denver, newcomer Evan Engram has a profession goal proportion of nineteen.9%, which incorporates 23.6% and 25.2% over the last two seasons. Sean Payton, in the meantime, hasn’t had a staff TE goal proportion above 19% since 2015, with the ones 8 TE rooms averaging 15%. Must this worry you in regards to Engram’s delusion output? Completely no longer. Payton didn’t have a pass-catching TE at Engram’s point all through the ones 8 seasons (Jared Cook dinner, Coby Fleener, Adam Trautman and Josh Hill have been his primary choices), while Jimmy Graham had no factor posting 3 consecutive top-2 delusion seasons with Payton in 2011, 2013 and 2014 (Payton was once suspended for 2012). Engram stays squarely within the back-end TE1 combine and there is upside for much more.
11. Yet one more at the Broncos: It took a yr and a part, however Payton in any case expanded Marvin Mims Jr.’s position in the second one part of final season. From Week 10 on (9 video games, together with the playoffs), Mims treated 14 carries and 41 objectives, which labored out to five.3 touches consistent with recreation. He scored six TDs and averaged 13.2 delusion PPG, which incorporated 3 video games with 19 or extra issues in his ultimate 5 regular-season outings. At the destructive facet, Mims remained a part-time participant all through the heater, failing to play greater than 48% of the offensive snaps in any recreation previous to hitting 69% within the wild card loss to Buffalo. Possibly the 2023 second-rounder is headed for a Yr 3 breakout, however that might briefly be derailed if Denver selects an early-round WR in April’s draft.
12. After pacing all tight leads to delusion issues as a rookie in 2023, Sam LaPorta fell to 8th in 2024. His receiving line dipped around the board (from 86-889-10 on 121 objectives to 60-726-7 on 84 objectives), regardless that it is notable that he did get again heading in the right direction to a point after a sluggish get started. After averaging 2.8 objectives (11% staff proportion) and seven.1 delusion PPG all through his first six video games, LaPorta leapt to six.7 objectives (21% proportion) and 13.6 delusion PPG in his ultimate 11 (together with the playoffs). The ones numbers are close to just like his rookie season and nearer to what we must be expecting transferring ahead.
13. Jordan Love turns out like a good delusion choice, however a more in-depth glance suggests he is a fade. He got here out sturdy final season with a couple of top-3 delusion outings in his first 4 video games, however consider it or no longer, he had no different weekly finishes higher than tenth the remainder of the season. From Week 8 on, he completed out of doors the highest 20 in 5 of 10 video games. Love was once a nonfactor along with his legs (83 dashing yards in 15 video games) and, after totaling 15 move TDs in his first 5 video games, he had most effective 10 in his ultimate 10 outings. Inexperienced Bay did ranking an strangely excessive share of its offensive TDs at the flooring final season (46%, the second one best possible for a Matt LaFleur offense), however it was once official, because the Packers leaned closely on Josh Jacobs. Possibly a wholesome Love will run extra and Inexperienced Bay will name extra passes close to the objective line, however each might want to occur to get Love into the QB1 combine.
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14. There have been seven video games final season through which Dontayvion Wicks performed no less than 70% of the offensive snaps (Romeo Doubs and/or Christian Watson have been sidelined the ones weeks). Wicks treated a wholesome 22% goal proportion (6.6 consistent with recreation), however wasn’t overly productive. After a robust 5-78-2 appearing on 13 objectives (24.8 delusion issues) in Week 4, he did not transparent seven objectives, 5 receptions, 49 yards or 9.9 delusion issues in any of the opposite six outings. Even with Watson prone to pass over all or maximum of 2025, Wicks might be not more than an occasional flex dart throw.
15. Anthony Richardson performed 10 complete video games final season. All the way through the ones outings, the Colts’ offense scored 8 passing and 15 dashing TDs. The full scoring is okay (2.3 consistent with recreation is true at league common), however the ratio is relating to for the staff’s move catchers (Alec Pierce and Josh Downs each and every stuck 3 of the TDs, with Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Dulin managing the others). Richardson scored six of the 15 rush TDs, with (this is some just right information) Jonathan Taylor operating in seven (in 9 video games). Purchaser beware on Colts move catchers if Richardson is the 2025 starter. And now for extra on that subject …
16. Michael Pittman Jr. averaged a wholesome 27% goal proportion in 10 complete video games with Richardson, however that ended in just a 39-428-0 receiving line on 65 objectives. He averaged 8.0 delusion PPG, attaining double digits as soon as (15.6 in Week 12). Downs averaged a cast 24% goal proportion in seven complete video games with Richardson, however that ended in a 22-338-3 receiving line on 41 objectives (5.9 consistent with recreation). He averaged 10.7 delusion PPG, attaining 15 issues 3 times, however falling in need of 6.5 within the 4 video games he did not in finding the top zone. In 12 video games through which Pittman Jr. and Downs have been additionally energetic, Pierce treated 12% of the objectives (3.8 consistent with recreation) and cleared 5 in a recreation most effective as soon as. If we filter out to the six video games performed with Richardson, Pittman and Downs, Pierce averaged 3.8 objectives and four.4 delusion issues consistent with recreation, failing to attain a TD or transparent 10.4 delusion issues in any of the outings. As discussed, purchaser beware, particularly with Adonai Mitchell a just right guess for a bigger position in Yr 2.
17. Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby performed six video games in combination as soon as Bigsby returned from damage in Week 13 final season. Bigsby out-carried Etienne, 73-68, however Etienne held an edge in snaps (205-149), routes (98-57) and objectives (22-7). Bigsby scored 3 TDs to Etienne’s 0, however Etienne was once nonetheless the “higher” delusion manufacturer (9.3 to 7.8 in PPG) all through the span. This committee is putting in to be a delusion nightmare, regardless that most likely new trainer Liam Coen could make some magic occur, as he did with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in Tampa Bay final season.
18. Brenton Odd is the brand new No. 1 tight result in Jacksonville following the aforementioned Engram’s departure. We were given a preview of this final season when Engram was once sidelined for 8 video games. In the ones weeks, Odd performed 72% of the snaps and treated a cast 14.6% goal proportion (4.9 consistent with recreation). That led to at least one large delusion day out (12-11-73-0 in Week 15), however he differently averaged 6.9 delusion PPG and did not transparent 12.4 issues in any of the opposite seven outings. Possibly Odd will get to any other point in Yr 3, however he turns out prone to settle in as a low-ceiling TE2.
Xavier Worthy completed his rookie season sturdy and must most effective recuperate in Yr 2. Brooke Sutton/Getty Pictures
19. Xavier Worthy was once decided on within the first around final season, with the Chiefs most likely hoping he’d lend a hand exchange the explosiveness misplaced after they dealt Tyreek Hill two years prior. Apparently, Worthy’s rookie season (79 touches, 742 yards, 9 TDs) was once moderately very similar to Hill’s first yr with the staff (85-860-9). Worthy was once concerned as a rusher (20-104-3) and receiver (59-638-6), dominating with the ball in his arms (his 7.0 RAC was once 9th easiest amongst WRs). Possibly probably the most notable stat concerning Worthy is his late-season emergence. He treated a hefty 26% goal proportion (8.7 consistent with recreation) in his ultimate six video games (together with the playoffs) and scored no less than 19 delusion issues in 5 of the ones video games. Operating with a QB (Patrick Mahomes) who has completed peak 10 in passing yards and TDs seven immediately years, in addition to with Travis Kelce growing old and Rashee Rice coping with an ACL restoration and possible suspension, the 22-year-old Worthy is definitely situated for a large breakout.
20. The final time a Pete Carroll offense had a destructive EPA was once 2011. Sure, that was once the yr previous to Russell Wilson’s arrival (Tarvaris Jackson was once the QB), however we additionally noticed competent play from Geno Smith in Carroll’s ultimate two seasons with Seattle (2022-23). Seattle operated fast-moving, pass-first offenses the ones years, which allowed Smith a ninth-place end in delusion PPG in 2022, previous to a step again in 2023 (twenty second). A identical scheme in Las Vegas could be really helpful for the staff’s move catchers, together with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, to not point out Smith’s sleeper enchantment.
21. Najee Harris signed with the Chargers and, whilst he is neatly situated to care for an enormous chew of the carries, we mustn’t be expecting many objectives. Jim Harbaugh’s 5 NFL offenses have mixed for an 11% tailback goal proportion (15% if we come with fullbacks) and none cleared 14%. Greg Roman’s tailback goal price is 12% (15% with fullbacks) for the ten offenses he is known as performs for complete time since 2011. None of them cleared 17%. The numbers for each coaches (which incorporates 5 years of crossover) are neatly beneath a league-average price that has floated across the 18-20% vary over the last decade.
22. Harris, by means of the way in which, is the one tailback within the league who has gave the impression in all 68 regular-season video games because the league moved to a 17-game steady season previous to 2021. Time will inform if the 27-year-old could make it 5 seasons in a row.
23. Yet one more factor at the Chargers: In final yr’s model of this column, I warned to not simply suppose this staff could be run-heavy underneath Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, as that they had normally known as balanced offenses, however ended up operating so much because of recreation script. Certain sufficient, the Chargers have been the game-script-adjusted 9th move-heaviest offense in 2024. The offense did transfer slowly (as anticipated), which restricted Justin Herbert’s ceiling, and whilst he is now completed simply out of doors the highest 10 in delusion PPG 3 seasons in a row, he did give a boost to in the second one part of the season (twenty fourth all through Weeks 1-7, however tenth Weeks 8-18).
24. From Week 10 on, Puka Nacua treated an enormous 37% goal proportion (11.3 consistent with recreation). He was once at or above 31% (or 8 objectives) in all 10 video games. With Cooper Kupp out and Davante Adams in, Nacua stays neatly situated for any other large goal proportion (Sean McVay has a dependancy of leaning closely on his core gamers). The one slight crimson flag with Nacua is touchdowns, as he has most effective 9 in 28 video games, and he was once restricted to 6 finish zone objectives (53rd at WR) in 2024. A jump in that house is what he will want as a way to get to elite delusion manufacturing.
25. Over the last decade, there were most effective 12 cases of a participant generating 200-plus carries and 75-plus receptions in one season. De’Von Achane did it in 2024, becoming a member of an elite team that comes with Christian McCaffrey (x3), David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell (x2), Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Corridor and Leonard Fournette. Apparently, Achane’s 2024 output (203-907-6 dashing, 87-78-592-6 receiving) is similar to 2023 for Corridor (209-876-5, 77-57-483-3) and 2021 for Ekeler (206-911-12, 92-70-647-8), with a excessive dependence on receiving (extra on that later). Achane additionally benefited very much from Miami going through two-high safeties at a league-high 56.3% price (which is helping give an explanation for the good fortune for him and Jonnu Smith, while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle underwhelmed). The knocks on Achane are his dimension (188 kilos, regardless that he held up in 2024, enjoying in all 17 video games and completing 9th at RB in snaps) and the truth that his play dipped significantly when Tua Tagovailoa was once out. Talking of which …
26. Extremely, Achane didn’t see fewer than 4 objectives in any of the 11 video games he performed with Tagovailoa final season. He averaged 6.6 objectives, 6.1 receptions, 48.2 receiving yards and 22.6 delusion issues consistent with recreation all through the ones 11 outings, scoring 11 TDs alongside the way in which. In 5 complete video games with out Tagovailoa, Achane totaled a 10-63-0 receiving line on 13 objectives and averaged 9.8 delusion PPG (one overall TD). He could also be Tua-dependent, however Achane is an electrical playmaker and can stay a point of interest in a just right offense. It is affordable to be expecting Ekeler-level manufacturing (most likely with fewer TDs) transferring ahead.
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27. 3 of Kevin O’Connell’s previous 4 offenses have scored no less than 80% in their TDs throughout the air (that comes with 2023 and 2024). All 4 offenses have been very pass-heavy. This is excellent news for the staff’s sturdy team of move catchers (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson), however a bit of relating to for the staff’s tailbacks (Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason).
28. Mike Vrabel (head trainer) and Josh McDaniels (offensive coordinator/playcaller) are again in New England. McDaniels’ offenses were unstable with regards to move/rush ratio, however all six Titans offenses have been run-heavy all through Vrabel’s head training tenure. New England’s 2025 scheme figures to rely a bit of on how neatly Drake Maye progresses, however Vrabel’s historical past suggests the second-year QB’s ceiling (no less than with regards to passing numbers) can be a bit restricted.
29. It was once a troubling 2024 season for Chris Olave, however it wasn’t all dangerous. Olave performed the majority of the snaps in six video games (5 with Derek Carr). There have been a couple of duds (2-11-0 and 2-10-0), however the different 4 video games have been terrific (4-81-0, 6-86-1, 8-87-0, 8-107-0). Olave treated a 24% goal proportion within the six video games, which wasn’t a long way off his 27% and 25% charges all through his first two seasons. A rebound season is a great guess.
30. Talking of Saints WRs, Rashid Shaheed was once arguably the staff’s No. 1 in 2024. In 5 complete video games in combination, Olave produced 28 objectives and 277 air yards, in comparison to 34 objectives and 580 air yards for Shaheed. In his six complete video games, Shaheed treated a hefty 24% goal proportion and reached 15 delusion issues 4 instances.
31. Tyrone Tracy Jr. took over because the Giants’ de facto lead again in Week 5 final season. He went directly to play 11 “complete” video games with Devin Singletary additionally energetic. All the way through the span, Tracy performed 67% of the snaps, treated 60% of the designed runs and 11% of the objectives. Singletary controlled a 27% snap proportion, getting 24% of the carries and four% of the objectives. Tracy averaged 12.2 delusion PPG, which ranked twenty third amongst RBs. Assuming the Giants get competent QB play from Russell Wilson, Tracy might be within the RB2 combine in his moment season.
32. Giants TE Theo Johnson neglected the top of 2024 because of damage, however he was once choosing up steam previous to taking place. After totaling a 14-150-0 receiving line on 20 objectives (7% proportion) all through his first 8 video games, Johnson leapt to a 15-181-1 line on 23 objectives (19%) within the ultimate 4 video games of his rookie marketing campaign. The delusion output wasn’t nice within the Giants’ deficient offense, however the build up in reliance on Johnson (which got here partly at Wan’Dale Robinson’s expense, by means of the way in which) is notable as we assessment the fourth-round select’s Yr 2 inventory. If there is one reservation right here, Brian Daboll normally hasn’t leaned a lot on tight ends (15% goal proportion all through 2018-24, with the one season over 19% with Darren Waller at the staff in 2023).
Garrett Wilson hasn’t had a super quarterback state of affairs in his first 3 seasons in New York. Will new Jets QB Justin Fields lend a hand Wilson achieve his immense delusion ceiling? Kathryn Riley/Getty Pictures
33. Garrett Wilson averaged 10.8 objectives consistent with recreation (29% proportion) in six video games previous to Davante Adams’ arrival final season. In 11 video games with Adams, Wilson averaged 7.9 objectives consistent with recreation (23%). Taking into account he treated a 25% proportion as a rookie and 30% in 2023, it is truthful to mention that the pre-Adams utilization figures to be extra indicative of what we’re going to see in 2025. And that might be super-important with dual-threat QB Justin Fields underneath heart. Fields was once ready to improve DJ Moore (30% goal proportion, or 8.2 consistent with recreation) as a robust delusion starter in 2023 (19.0 PPG), however Moore is the one WR who has averaged double-digit delusion issues with Fields underneath heart. That incorporates George Pickens, who scored 0 TDs and averaged 58.8 yards and 9.9 delusion PPG with Fields, in comparison to 3 TDs, 67.6 YPG and 13.1 PPG with Russell Wilson. Garrett Wilson will want so much to head proper as a way to produce at a WR1 point.
34. Together with the playoffs, Saquon Barkley had an astounding 482 touches final season. That is the maximum a operating again has treated since DeMarco Murray had 497 in 2014. Since 2011, there have now been 15 cases of a again attaining 400 touches (once more, together with the playoffs). Except Le’Veon Bell (who infamously skipped the 2018 season), our pattern of 13 RBs went directly to common 12.3 video games (4 performed each recreation) and 18.3 delusion PPG. Ten of the 13 noticed a dip in delusion PPG and most effective 5 repeated as top-5 delusion scorers. Possibly maximum relating to is age. Of the 5 who repeated as top-5 scorers, 4 have been 25 years outdated or more youthful (Ezekiel Elliott 24, Ray Rice 25, Derrick Henry 26, Bell 25). The exception is Marshawn Lynch (28), which is the age Barkley might be subsequent season, regardless that Lynch slightly hit the 400-touch threshold (403), getting 79 fewer than Barkley. Barkley’s traditionally excessive utilization, “complex” age and restricted receiving paintings are causes to assume he may just take a step again in 2025, however he must be capable to supply RB1-level manufacturing on a per-game foundation.
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35. This is the place the Steelers have ranked in offensive touchdowns over the last 4 seasons (the primary, 2021, was once Ben Roethlisberger’s ultimate season): twenty sixth, twenty ninth, twenty eighth and twenty third. It clearly hasn’t been a just right run and, particularly with run-heavy Arthur Smith calling performs, it raises considerations about the potential of constant delusion output for the likes of DK Metcalf and George Pickens.
36. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet performed 11 video games in combination final season. In the ones weeks, Walker treated 153 carries (68%) and 53 objectives (14%), in comparison to 44 carries (19%) and 30 objectives (8%) for Charbonnet. Charbonnet averaged 18.3 touches and 19.2 delusion issues consistent with recreation the six weeks Walker was once sidelined, however most effective 6.1 touches (10 max) and six.5 delusion issues (12.1 max) consistent with recreation the 11 weeks Walker performed. That is in comparison to 18.1 touches (12 min) and 16.5 delusion issues (13-plus 9 instances) consistent with recreation for Walker. Possibly new OC Klint Kubiak will shake issues up a bit of, however it kind of feels obvious who the lead again is in Seattle.
37. Cade Otton made a jump in 2024, however do not omit his splits. All the way through Weeks 1-6 with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin wholesome, Otton treated a cast 17% goal proportion (5.2 consistent with recreation) however was once restricted to a 16-163-1 receiving line (6.5 delusion PPG and no video games over 11.2). Each Godwin and Evans were given harm in Week 7, with Godwin lacking the remainder of the season and Evans out via Week 10. All the way through Weeks 7-10, Otton treated a 25% goal proportion (9.5 consistent with recreation, 8-plus in all 4) and posted a 30-293-3 receiving line (19.3 PPG with 18-plus 3 times). Otton gave the impression in 4 extra video games after Evans’ go back and treated a 14% goal proportion (4.3 consistent with recreation). He posted a 10-144-0 line and averaged 6.1 delusion PPG (no video games over 10.0). With Evans and Godwin again, Jalen McMillan on the upward thrust and Tampa’s heavy reliance on its RBs, Otton figures to go again to TE2 manufacturing.
38. That is the case for Otton in spite of enjoying in a Tampa Bay offense certain to attain so much throughout the air. Since Todd Bowles took over as head trainer in 2022, the Bucs have scored a league-high 76.6% in their offensive TDs throughout the air. That is neatly above the 61% league common and all 3 groups completed peak 5: 84% in 2022 (Tom Brady’s ultimate season), 78% in 2023 and 72% in 2024. Upload in undersized lead again Bucky Irving and there is a sturdy probability Baker Mayfield might be throwing a ton close to the objective line once more this season. That is just right information for Godwin, Evans, McMillan and, in spite of what I mentioned previous and stand by means of, Otton.
39. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears performed 11 video games in combination final season. In the ones weeks, Pollard held a large edge in snaps (381 to 255) and carries (150 to 64), in addition to a slight-to-moderate edge in carries within the 5-yard line (5 to 4), routes (161 to 126) and objectives (38 to 32). Put in a different way, Pollard treated 62% of the designed runs and 12% of the objectives, in comparison to 27% and 10%, respectively, for Spears. In spite of Pollard preserving a 180-to-91 contact edge, he scored fewer TDs (4 to five) and rarely outscored Spears from a delusion viewpoint (11.9 to 9.1 PPG). In reality, Pollard’s lone recreation attaining 19 delusion issues got here with Spears out in Week 12. It is transparent Tennessee leaned Pollard in dashing scenarios and Spears was once near-equally concerned with passing scenarios, however until this offense improves, Pollard’s ceiling might be restricted.
40. Imagine it or no longer, there have been most effective 8 video games final season through which each Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler performed in complete in combination (and that comes with 3 playoff video games). In the ones video games, Robinson treated 49% of the snaps, 49% of the carries (12.8 consistent with recreation) and six% of the objectives (1.9 consistent with recreation). Ekeler treated 51% of the snaps, 21% of the carries (5.5) and 14% of the objectives (4.5). Robinson racked up 4 TDs and 8 carries within the 5, while Ekeler had 0 TDs and nil carries within the 5. Robinson averaged 11.1 delusion PPG (14-plus 4 instances), while Ekeler averaged 10.0 delusion PPG, clearing 12.8 as soon as. We must be expecting a identical cut up in 2025.
41. On a per-game foundation, Terry McLaurin has treated a goal proportion within the 21.8% to 24.5% vary all six seasons within the NFL. In reality, he is completed the previous 5 seasons averaging 7.5, 7.1, 7.7, 7.0 and seven.4 objectives consistent with recreation. That is extremely constant utilization, albeit a bit of low bearing in mind his pedigree. McLaurin completed the 2024 steady season thirty third in routes, thirty second in goal proportion, nineteenth in objectives, fifteenth in receptions and twelfth in yards amongst WRs … however was once 7th in delusion issues (fifteenth in PPG) because of a career-high 13 TDs. He will desire a spice up in utilization to offset TD regression to the imply to maintain WR1 numbers.
