Sean AllenMar 27, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
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- Sean Allen is a contributing author for fable hockey and having a bet at ESPN. He used to be the 2008 and 2009 FSWA Hockey Author of the 12 months.
Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time purpose file has been relentless, with the milestone drawing near, and now the having a bet markets are beginning to take realize. Sportsbooks have begun providing odds on when Ovechkin will notch the ancient purpose — will it occur at domestic in Washington, towards an established rival or beneath the intense lighting fixtures of a marquee matchup?
Or will we need to stay up for subsequent season?
ESPN BET Sportsbook provides more than a few bets on facets of this ancient chase, which we will discover with some knowledge on his scoring this season.
Opponent for Alex Ovechkin’s 895th common season occupation purpose In 2024/25 common season: The least successful guess here’s the only the place Ovechkin does not ranking the milestone this season, however a.) that is no a laugh and b.) that is not as most likely as the percentages may counsel. Taking does now not ranking 895th this season at +130 does not reasonably have compatibility the vibe. Ovechkin is on a tempo this season to complete with 896 targets.
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In fact, that ignores the elephant within the room. The Capitals become the primary crew to clinch a playoff spot and can proceed to cement their positioning because the season winds down. To fashion Ovechkin’s tempo to hit 895 or past, he must play all 11 ultimate video games. Is there an international, with all this highlight and hype, that the Capitals would relaxation Ovechkin down the stretch? What if the general few video games of the season haven’t any referring to their place headed into the postseason? Maximum NHL groups would give their 39-year-old offensive linchpin a relaxation ahead of the playoffs start. Even if this person success chase does not anything for Washington’s hunt for the Stanley Cup this season, it is nonetheless tricky to assume he does not play each sport. That is Alexander Ovechkin we’re speaking about.
If Ovechkin performs the remainder of the common season, targets No. 894 (to tie Gretzky) and No. 895 (to go him) must come to go. A regression research in keeping with his sport logs suggests the 895th purpose will most likely hit wire within the penultimate sport of the season towards the New York Islanders on April 15. The Islanders are +250 for this guess, aided by way of that sport, but in addition by way of the truth they’re the Capitals opponent on April 6, too. So if Ovie rips off a hat trick towards the Blackhawks to boost up his tempo, the Islanders have some inbuilt cushion.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are if truth be told the select with the second one lowest odds despite the fact that, and this is because they have got two video games towards the Capitals at a vital juncture. The groups will play a home-and-home collection on April 12 and April 13, representing the window for the Gretzky-tying purpose throughout the ones video games. But when we take a look at little nearer on the regression fashion and lengthen the ones decimals, it technically has Ovechkin at purpose No. 894.89 on April 13, so whilst the edge is crossed towards the Islanders, this Blue Jackets possibility at +190 holds some attraction.
However me? I love tales. I am almost definitely taking the Pittsburgh Penguins at +450 as a result of it is the most productive tale. It is the ultimate sport of the season. Sidney Crosby and Ovechkin are endlessly related throughout NHL historical past. There is no higher opponent for this purpose to come back towards.
Alex Ovechkin’s overall occupation common season targets on the finish of the 2024/25 common season: Until you may have perception into the theory of the Capitals resting Ovechkin for the playoffs, the 894 to 896 inclusive guess at -135 seems secure as properties. Why? If Ovechkin does set the file early, it offers the Capitals each explanation why on the planet to offer him a relaxation ahead of the playoff grind. So pushing previous that overall does not really feel life like.
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Alex Ovechkin’s 895th occupation common season purpose to be an empty-net purpose: One of these fuss being remodeled this, however nobody is yelling at Brandon Hagel or Mikko Rantanen for scoring 8 empty-netters this season — the similar quantity as Ovechkin. For the file purpose to be an empty-netter, the opposing crew should be trailing within the sport, however shut sufficient that risking the goalie for a comeback is warranted. Taking into account the in all probability window for the purpose is coming within the 4 video games that includes the Blue Jackets (two times), Islanders and Penguins, there’s a explanation why the “no” facet of this guess has very adverse odds at -525. Until the Blue Jackets or Islanders can in point of fact get started pushing within the subsequent two weeks, the ones usually are 4 video games towards 4 non-playoff groups.
Manner of Alex Ovechkin’s 895th occupation common season purpose in 2024/25 common season: Right here we’ve got even energy at -220, continual play at +160 and, only for a laugh, shorthanded at 60-1. Such a issues isn’t just like the others. Ovechkin remaining scored a shorthanded purpose on Oct. 13, 2021, towards the New York Rangers within the first sport of the season. Previous to that, it used to be Jan. 3, 2009, towards the Rangers. He if truth be told has simplest 5 in his complete occupation, with the opposite 3 coming in his rookie marketing campaign. In the meantime, 19 of Ovechkin’s targets this season were at even energy (now not empty internet) and 9 were at the continual play. That stability is mirrored within the odds, however I nonetheless just like the power-play facet extra right here. Once more, it has to do with the important thing window for the important thing purpose: the Islanders are ranked thirtieth at the penalty kill this season, whilst the Blue Jackets are twenty fifth.
Length of Alex Ovechkin’s 895th occupation common season purpose in 2024/25 common season: Ovechkin’s targets by way of duration this season are 10 within the first, six in the second one, 19 within the 0.33 and one in time beyond regulation. His overall shot makes an attempt by way of duration are 139 within the first, 118 in the second one, 148 within the 0.33 and 12 in time beyond regulation. Unusually, the first duration if truth be told has the best odds at +250 amongst non-long pictures (time beyond regulation is +2,500). Taking the primary duration seems like a price selection.
Newest odds as of newsletter. For odds motion, move to ESPN BET.
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Ovechkin’s 889th purpose strikes him 6 clear of breaking Gretzky’s file
Alex Ovechkin nets his 889th occupation purpose to tie the ranking within the 0.33 duration, hanging him six clear of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time file.
Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild
7:30 p.m., Xcel Power Middle
Watch live to tell the tale ESPN+
Capitals (-1.5, +160), -155 cash line
Wild (+1.5, -190), +135 cash line
General 5.5: (Over +100, Below -120)
The query stays: Are we getting an Ovechkin purpose this night time? Smartly, simplest the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Geese have allowed extra power-play targets by contrast season, so it seems like an Ovi prop evening: Alex Ovechkin overall targets over 0.5 (+120). He had a power-play purpose towards the Wild on Jan. 2 this season, too.
Editor’s Choices
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Whilst domestic underdogs total have overwhelmed the puck line virtually 64% of the time this season, the Wild are simplest 5-6 towards the unfold on this situation. The Capitals are 8-6 towards the unfold as the street favourite (57.1 p.c as opposed to total highway favs charge of 36.1 p.c). With Minnesota nonetheless lacking Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, there is not any explanation why to assume the Wild can push previous the percentages on this spot. Take Capitals -1.5 this night.
The Wild do lend a hand development at the beneath at domestic, going low 22 instances as opposed to 14 instances over (61.1% as opposed to league-wide at-home charge of 53.2%).
Wait for blocked shot props at the Washington facet nearer to sport time. Whilst all of us focal point on Ovechkin, the Wild permit the third-most blocked pictures to opposing defenders this season (11.8 in keeping with sport). A Martin Fehervary over blocked 1.5 pictures prop (-119) might be interesting.
