Mar 25, 2025, 05:30 PM ET
The following degree is ready for the 2025 girls’s NCAA match. Whilst upsets had been in large part scarce around the first two rounds, that promises us some heavy-hitting showdowns on the regionals in Birmingham, Alabama, and Spokane, Washington.
The regional semifinals will characteristic the primary Duke-North Carolina showdown within the NCAA match, rematches from November in LSU-NC State and TCU-Notre Dame, the following bankruptcy in two of probably the most storied methods within the game in Texas-Tennessee, and a lot more.
However the Candy 16 sadly is not going to characteristic USC famous person and nationwide participant of the yr favourite JuJu Watkins, who suffered a season-ending ACL damage early within the Trojans’ second-round sport Monday evening.
Nonetheless, there may be a lot to look ahead to. ESPN breaks down what to anticipate from every matchup within the Candy 16 and predicts the winner for every sport. Video games are indexed in chronological order.
No. 2 seed Duke and No. 3 seed North Carolina will face off for a 3rd time this season within the Candy 16 — the primary time the 2 methods are assembly in an NCAA match sport. Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire
Birmingham 2 Regional
(2) Duke vs. (3) North Carolina
Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why North Carolina will win: The primary time those groups met (a grueling 53-46 additional time North Carolina win) Alyssa Ustby was once the most productive participant at the courtroom, notching considered one of her 9 double-doubles at the season. She ignored the following conflict (a comfy Duke win) with a knee damage. Ustby has performed smartly since her go back, with the exception of within the ACC match semifinals towards NC State — no longer coincidentally, the Tar Heels’ best loss since she returned to the lineup.
Why Duke will win: How do the Blue Devils win any sport? With their protection. Their fresh offensive strides cause them to an intriguing Ultimate 4 pick out, however their luck is basically derived from protection. They allowed 70 issues in best six video games this season — all towards NCAA match groups — and had been 2-4 in that reach. They undoubtedly want to rating, as evidenced through that January assembly with UNC once they allowed best 53 issues in 45 mins and nonetheless misplaced. However protection is the only consistent in Durham since Kara Lawson took over, and that is the most productive Duke crew she has had at that finish.
X issue: Reigan Richardson emerged as a celeb all over Duke’s run to the Candy 16 remaining yr. When she scored 35 issues in an additional time win over Oklahoma correct earlier than Thanksgiving, it looked as if it would strengthen that standing. However she has most commonly scuffled since. Closing yr’s most sensible scorer for Duke, Richardson now ranks fourth at the crew. Her 13 issues in the second one around towards Oregon was once her absolute best output in March. A go back to shape could be an enormous spice up to extending the Blue Devils’ season another week. — Charlie Creme
Alternatives to win
Andrea Adelson: Duke 59, UNC 55
Kendra Andrews: Duke 59, UNC 56
Katie Barnes: Duke 58, North Carolina 51
Charlie Creme: Duke 61, North Carolina 57
Kevin Pelton: Duke 60, North Carolina 56
Alexa Philippou: Duke 45, North Carolina 43
Michael Voepel: North Carolina 61, Duke 57
(1) South Carolina vs. (4) Maryland
Friday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why South Carolina will win: Intensity. With the ability to play as many as 10 avid gamers, use more than one combos and switch to the most efficient bench within the nation provides First light Staley a game-planning merit. She will pivot off what is not operating till she reveals what does. From fifth-year senior Te-Hina Paopao to freshman Joyce Edwards, seven other avid gamers led the Gamecocks in scoring in a sport this season. In the future this match, the Gamecocks will want that one particular person to step up for a large second. That point is not now.
Editor’s Alternatives
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Why Maryland will win: The Terrapins scored 54 in their 111 issues towards Alabama on contested pictures, probably the most within the NCAA match prior to now 5 years. Few groups contest extra pictures than South Carolina. For Maryland, scoring towards power will likely be important. Sarah Te-Biasu, Shyanne Dealers and Kaylene Smikle have proved they may be able to do this. Regardless of no longer having a participant within the common rotation taller than 6-foot-2, the Terps rank tenth within the nation in rebound price. Brenda Frese’s groups are usually excellent at the forums, so Maryland may be able to compete with South Carolina at the glass.
X issue: MiLaysia Fulwiley. Wildly proficient but in addition inconsistent, the sophomore holds the important thing not to best the Gamecocks’ possibilities on this area but in addition their nationwide championship hopes. She is excellent sufficient to be their second-leading scorer and their chief in steals. However she additionally failed to attain in double figures 13 occasions this season, together with two of the previous 3 video games. — Creme
Alternatives to win
Adelson: South Carolina 70, Maryland 55
Andrews: South Carolina 73, Maryland 59
Barnes: South Carolina 75, Maryland 59
Creme: South Carolina 68, Maryland 47
Pelton: South Carolina 84, Maryland 68
Philippou: South Carolina 81, Maryland 67
Voepel: South Carolina 85, Maryland 70
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1:10
Saniya Rivers’ 17 issues, 11 assists fuels NC State to Candy 16
Saniya Rivers stuffs the stat sheet with 17 issues, 11 assists and eight rebounds within the Wolfpack’s takedown of Michigan State.
Spokane 1 Regional
(2) NC State vs. (3) LSU
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why NC State will win: NC State has tightened up its play because it misplaced to LSU simply earlier than Thanksgiving — a sport by which the Tigers outrebounded the Wolfpack through 20 forums. Specifically, newcomers Tilda Trygger and Lorena Awou now have the rate, duration and ability stage to compare LSU. The actual difference-maker will likely be Madison Hayes, NC State’s main rebounder at 7.3 according to sport, who may be a 3-point capturing risk.
Why LSU will win: LSU’s large 3 — Flau’Jae Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams — is among the perfect trios in faculty basketball, and all 3 have clicked up to now within the match. Johnson is attacking the basket. Morrow is making the most of double-teams and aiding her teammates. Williams is scoring at will. They’re extraordinarily onerous to decelerate as a result of what number of scoring choices they’ve.
X issue: LSU’s trio apart, the sport’s result will come all the way down to the remainder of Kim Mulkey’s roster. Johnson and Morrow have completed one of these excellent task of the usage of the eye warring parties give them to open up their teammates — who will have to capitalize on the ones alternatives. The Tigers have emphasised looking ahead to the most productive shot slightly than taking the primary to be had shot all over the match, and proceeding to take action will likely be key as they appear to succeed in the Elite 8. — Kendra Andrews
Alternatives to win
Adelson: LSU 75, NC State 65
Andrews: LSU 81, NC State 78
Barnes: LSU 78, NC State 72
Creme: LSU 84, NC State 76
Pelton: LSU 76, NC State 73
Philippou: LSU 83, NC State 81
Voepel: LSU 80, NC State 75
(1) UCLA vs. (5) Ole Pass over
Friday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why UCLA will win: With Lauren Betts changing into the primary participant with a 30-point, 10-rebound match sport in program historical past, the Bruins are enjoying a method of basketball that is onerous for any opponent to prevent. UCLA has thrived in presenting Betts as a mismatch, and she is going to pose issues towards a smaller Ole Pass over crew.
Why Ole Pass over will win: Ole Pass over is battle-tested. The Rebels have already performed No. 1 seeds South Carolina, USC and Texas (two times), in addition to No. 2 seeds UConn and NC State, all over the common season. They misplaced all six video games, however they had been 22-4 towards each and every different opponent. Their protection has fueled all of them season, and they are going to want any other large efficiency to win. Ole Pass over additionally wishes large showings from Madison Scott and Sira Thienou, who completed with 16 and 14 issues, respectively, within the second-round win towards Baylor.
X issue: Kiki Rice, who has been Betts’ right-hand girl all season, must proceed to capitalize on the entire defensive consideration being put on Betts. Rice had 23 issues and 7 assists within the Bruins’ second-round sport towards Richmond, with a season-high 4 3-pointers from making the most of catch-and-shoot alternatives. UCLA will want that more or less efficiency from her once more Friday evening. — Andrews
Alternatives to win
Adelson: UCLA 66, Ole Pass over 53
Andrews: UCLA 72, Ole Pass over 53
Barnes: UCLA 70, Ole Pass over 52
Creme: UCLA 69, Ole Pass over 55
Pelton: UCLA 71, Ole Pass over 63
Philippou: UCLA 72, Ole Pass over 60
Voepel: UCLA 75, Ole Pass over 62
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Madison Booker ratings 20 to steer Texas to Candy 16
Madison Booker leads Texas to the Candy 16 with 20 issues within the Longhorns’ 65-48 win over Illinois.
Birmingham 3 Regional
(2) TCU vs. (3) Notre Dame
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
Why Notre Dame will win: Hannah Hidalgo would be the perfect participant at the courtroom. TCU has big-time avid gamers in Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince, however the Notre Dame sophomore is on a distinct stage. Extra importantly, she turns out to have regained the fervour and effort this is so important to her sport. A fiery Hidalgo produces the most productive effects. She additionally undoubtedly recalls two issues heading into Saturday: the loss to TCU in November, by which Notre Dame blew a 14-point lead and he or she was once outplayed through Van Lith within the fourth quarter, and remaining yr’s Candy 16 sport, by which she scored a season-low 10 issues on 4-of-17 capturing within the loss to Oregon State.
Why TCU will win: The Horned Frogs could be new to the Candy 16, however their avid gamers don’t seem to be. All 5 starters have made it this a long way once or more of their careers, and Van Lith has a historical past of additional NCAA match luck. The Giant 12 Participant of the 12 months has performed in 19 match video games and is averaging 15.3 issues in that span. Her 8.5 assists on this match ranks 3rd within the nation. Notre Dame’s guards will provide a large problem Saturday, however Van Lith had 21 issues and 7 assists in that 76-68 disillusioned of the Irish within the Cayman Islands — on the time the largest win in TCU girls’s basketball historical past.
X issue: Is Olivia Miles actually wholesome? She twisted her ankle within the opening-round win towards Stephen F. Austin and hasn’t relatively appeared like herself within the match. She has a mixed 13 assists and only one turnover, however she has scored 10 overall issues and brought 10 pictures. With the contest best rising in magnitude, extra tangible manufacturing, particularly that 40.1 3-point capturing share, could be important. Whilst protection is not essentially a energy for Miles, her duration may be a large asset in slicing off the riding angles of Van Lith. — Creme
Alternatives to win
Adelson: TCU 79, Notre Dame 77
Andrews: Notre Dame 82, TCU 78
Barnes: TCU 72, Notre Dame 69
Creme: Notre Dame 81, TCU 72
Pelton: Notre Dame 73, TCU 67
Philippou: Notre Dame 73, TCU 70
Voepel: Notre Dame 77, TCU 71
(1) Texas vs. (5) Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Why Texas will win: Few groups, if any, can fit the Longhorns’ defensive toughness. The schemes and workforce are a awesome aggregate. Rori Harmon because the harassing on-ball defender at the perimeter makes Vic Schaefer’s methods paintings, whilst the wall of dimension inside Taylor Jones, Kyla Oldacre and Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda can squeeze the existence out of opposing offenses making an attempt to attain within the lane. Throw in that on maximum nights Texas has the most productive participant at the courtroom in Madison Booker and it is merit, Longhorns.
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Why Tennessee will win: The Girl Vols can merely outshoot the Longhorns — no longer essentially extra appropriately however in sheer quantity. Tennessee makes best 32.9% of its 3-pointers however shoots greater than all however two groups within the nation and makes the second-most of the ones pictures. Texas does no longer have the willingness, or the firepower, to compete in that space. If the Girl Vols can money in from deep sufficient occasions, the Longhorns may no longer be capable of make sufficient 2-pointers to compensate.
X issue: Those are two of the most productive rebounding groups within the nation, but if they met in Austin in overdue January (a four-point Longhorns win), Texas was once plus-15 at the forums — and that was once with Oldacre as a nonfactor. The Girl Vols’ perfect probability is to tighten that distinction up, particularly if it comes within the type of second-chance issues. So control the ones offensive rebounding numbers. If the merit is going to Oldacre and Jones, the Longhorns will be successful. — Creme
Alternatives to win
Adelson: Tennessee 77, Texas 76
Andrews: Texas 70, Tennessee 63
Barnes: Texas 68, Tennessee 60
Creme: Texas 75, Tennessee 70
Pelton: Texas 81, Tennessee 69
Philippou: Texas 78, Tennessee 72
Voepel: Texas 66, Tennessee 62
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2:11
Paige Bueckers drops 34 issues as UConn routs SDST to succeed in Candy 16
Paige Bueckers ratings 34 issues in her ultimate sport at Gampel Pavilion to steer UConn previous South Dakota State within the NCAA match.
Spokane 4 Regional
(2) UConn vs. (3) Oklahoma
Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why UConn will win: There is probably not a greater trio of avid gamers within the nation at this time than Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Sarah Robust. On Monday, that crew mixed to attain or lend a hand on 78 of UConn’s 91 issues towards South Dakota State. The Huskies have additionally been enjoying unbelievable protection within the match, permitting a mixed 91 issues and forcing 45 turnovers. Revel in is at the Huskies’ aspect, too: Six rotation avid gamers have gave the impression in a Candy 16 or deeper within the NCAA match.
Why Oklahoma will win: Going up towards Oklahoma’s offense could be a problem. The Sooners are first within the nation in tempo, proportion the ball extraordinarily smartly and are environment friendly from the ground, in particular within the arc. They even have a large merit within in Raegan Beers, their 6-4 middle who transferred from Oregon State. Frontcourt intensity out of doors of Robust is one weak point for UConn this yr. Oklahoma would want to weigh down the Huskies offensively and step up with a few of its perfect protection of the season to spell a big disillusioned in Spokane.
X issue: Can UConn’s protection dictate and switch over Oklahoma, or will the Sooners be capable of maintain the ball? They reasonable 18.7 turnovers according to sport, probably the most worst marks within the nation. That may not fly towards a Huskies crew this is chargeable for inflicting its warring parties to dedicate 45 turnovers up to now this match, albeit towards lesser festival. — Alexa Philippou
Alternatives to win
Adelson: UConn 88, Oklahoma 60
Andrews: UConn 82, Oklahoma 65
Barnes: UConn 85, Oklahoma 62
Creme: UConn 90, Oklahoma 68
Pelton: UConn 84, Oklahoma 70
Philippou: UConn 80, Oklahoma 62
Voepel: UConn 91, Oklahoma 82
(1) USC vs. (5) Kansas State
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why USC will win: The Trojans face a huge process in taking a look to win with out Watkins, the heart beat in their squad. Kiki Iriafen must have the sport of her existence, very similar to how she put USC on her again with 36 issues and 9 rebounds towards Mississippi State on Monday. Everybody else must step up, too: From senior Rayah Marshall to switch Talia von Oelhoffen to famous person newcomers Kennedy Smith, Avery Howell and Kayleigh Heckel. The ones remaining 3 additionally had a powerful sport Monday, combining for 41 issues. The Trojans had been an elite defensive squad this season, which Watkins was once an enormous a part of, however must lean on that finish of the ground now greater than ever to overcome the Wildcats.
Why Kansas State will win: Despite the fact that Watkins hadn’t gotten harm, Kansas State was once taking a look like a difficult Candy 16 matchup. With Ayoka Lee within the lineup, the Wildcats are 20-1, with the ones two most up-to-date wins coming during the last week since she returned from a foot damage. Lee has been doing smartly again at the flooring, and the Wildcats encompass her with 3 avid gamers capturing over 40% from 3, together with Temira Poindexter, who’s coming off a confidence-instilling sport by which she sank 8 3-pointers to assist elevate Kansas State over Kentucky in additional time in Lexington. That crew does not even come with level guard Serena Sundell, the conductor of some of the environment friendly offenses within the country. In different phrases, the Trojans could have their arms complete.
X issue: How will USC rally round Watkins, and one any other, following Watkins’ damage? Nobody would blame the Trojans for feeling defeated after shedding their celebrity, however occasionally accidents could be a galvanizing power that brings the most productive out of a crew. If the opposite USC avid gamers can channel that power, they are going to be a difficult out in Spokane. — Philippou
Alternatives to win
Adelson: USC 61, Kansas State 60
Andrews: USC 65, Kansas State 61
Barnes: USC 62, Kansas State 59
Creme: USC 68, Kansas State 65
Pelton: USC 68, Kansas State 67
Philippou: Kansas State 62, USC 55
Voepel: Kansas State 70, USC 67
