Mar 25, 2025, 04:45 PM ET
March Insanity is without doubt one of the perfect occasions within the sports activities group for what it brings us: upsets, storylines and the entire magic of 3 superb weekends of win-or-go-home faculty basketball. When “One Shining Second” performs on the finish of the match, even probably the most stoic fanatics will also be moved to tears.
However at the different aspect of each and every loss is a fan base with prime expectancies and the disgruntlement that their crew left the match some distance too quickly. At the receiving finish of each and every buzzer-beater is a crew left strolling off the courtroom surprised, jerseys overlaying their faces.
Is it conceivable to really measure the extent of heartbreak a crew and its fanatics really feel after a loss within the NCAA match? As a Mets, Jets and 76ers fan, I am well-versed in sports activities distress and imagine myself provided with sufficient firsthand wisdom to collect this score of simply that, from least to maximum painful.
Editor’s Alternatives
2 Similar
This yr, we are breaking them down even additional, into tiers:
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Simply satisfied to be right here: Self-explanatory.
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One of these tease: This tier is for the prime seeds that made us do a double take on the scoreboard a couple of instances, prior to ultimately touchdown on the anticipated conclusion in blowout style.
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Here is your participation trophy: Those groups have been anticipated to have an inexpensive probability to advance, however by no means in point of fact have been a danger.
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Silver linings playbook: The loss wasn’t superb, however there is something certain to take from the total match efficiency.
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So shut, but up to now: They have been in it for a majority of the sport, however the ultimate rating did not display it.
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We aren’t mad, simply dissatisfied: For the flat-out underperformers.
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Emotional curler coaster: That they had us on the fringe of our seat and biting our nails.
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If you happen to had one shot or one alternative: Issues got here right down to the overall play.
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… What simply came about?! Reserved for probably the most painful finishes.
We are basing those ratings on pre-tournament expectancies, height win chance (in keeping with ESPN Analytics) and different notable storylines or instances. We are additionally going to replace this after each and every weekend, as groups are eradicated from the dance.
Let’s dive in.
Remaining up to date: March 25, 2025
Tiers:
Simply satisfied to be right here | One of these tease | Here is your participation trophy |
Silver linings playbook | So shut, but up to now | We aren’t mad, simply dissatisfied |
Emotional curler coaster | If you happen to had one shot or one alternative | What simply came about?!
Simply satisfied to be right here
52. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (16-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 93-49 to 1-seed Duke within the first around
Top win chance: 0.7% at tipoff
The Mountaineers have been by no means within the recreation. However they have been by no means anticipated to be in it. Profitable a First 4 recreation brings cash to the varsity and the convention (which is why 16 seeds play in that around as an alternative of best the final at-large groups within the box), so anything else past this is merely enjoying with area cash.
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51. SIU Edwardsville Cougars (16-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 78-40 to 1-seed Houston within the first around
Top win chance: 1.2% with 18:13 left in first 1/2, main 4-2
No disgrace in shedding within the combat of the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville was once making its first-ever NCAA match look and had a lead towards a 1-seed. (For what it is value, Gonzaga by no means led towards Houston within the subsequent around.) What ultimately transpired issues a lot lower than the publicity the varsity and gamers were given at the recreation’s largest level.
50. Norfolk State Spartans (16-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 95-69 to 1-seed Florida within the first around
Top win chance: 3% at tipoff
The Spartans are recognized for his or her 15-2 disenchanted over Missouri within the 2012 match, however they have turn into the category of the MEAC in fresh seasons, having gained the convention’s auto-bid in 3 of the previous 5 years. This 26-point loss was once in truth Norfolk State’s closest loss in that span, so issues are taking a look up.
49. Alabama State Hornets (16-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 83-63 to 1-seed Auburn within the first around
Top win chance: 6% with 1:29 left in first 1/2, trailing by means of 1
The Hornets pulled off a shocking last-second win within the First 4, and whilst the end result in their assembly with Auburn was once most likely by no means unsure, they nonetheless made a recreation of it for 20 mins. They have been a 32.5-point underdog and hung round with the match’s peak general seed. Leisure simple, SWAC champs. That is about as excellent because it will get for a 16-seed.
48. Lipscomb Bisons (14-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 82-55 to 3-seed Iowa State within the first around
Top win chance: 14% with 11:18 left in first 1/2, main by means of 1
As a 14-seed, all you’ll ask for is a aggressive get started — which is not even one thing the entire 9-seeds did. The Bisons delivered for his or her fanatics in that regard. The 13-point underdogs led Iowa State 16-15 after 9 mins of play. That they then were given outscored 41-14 is one thing we will select now not to bear in mind.
47. Bryant Bulldogs (15-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 87-62 to 2-seed Michigan State within the first around
Top win chance: 21% with 4:47 left in first 1/2, main by means of 3
A 21% win chance is best than maximum 15-seeds ever see (extra in this later), so it was once no doubt a good appearing for the Bulldogs. However there may be not anything like a gathering with Tom Izzo in March to remind you that lifestyles comes at you speedy: The Spartans ended the sport on a 33-16 run.
One of these tease
46. Wofford Terriers (15-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 77-62 to 2-seed Tennessee within the first around
Top win chance: 6% with 13:33 left in moment 1/2, trailing by means of 8
Wofford was once the 6-seed within the SoCon match and pulled off 3 upsets simply to succeed in the Giant Dance. Being inside shouting distance of the Vols after the damage is an accomplishment in itself; a couple of extra photographs right here or there and this would possibly’ve been a real sweat.
45. Montana Grizzlies (14-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 85-66 to 3-seed Wisconsin within the first around
Top win chance: 12% with 15:14 left in moment 1/2, trailing by means of 4
Montana’s recreation towards Wisconsin performed out as maximum 3-14 and 4-13 video games do, with the underdog conserving tempo however now not really threatening an disenchanted. Grizzlies fanatics will have forgotten what shedding felt like for somewhat even though, as Montana had misplaced only one recreation since Jan. 19 — in extra time — getting into the 1st around.
44. Yale Bulldogs (13-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 80-71 to 3-seed Texas A&M within the first around
Top win chance: 28% with 18:27 left in first 1/2, main 2-0
The general public’s favourite 13-4 disenchanted select by no means in point of fact made a fee on the Aggies, whose defensive nature restricted the Bulldogs early on. Texas A&M led 27-14 early after which maintained a minimum of a two-possession lead the remainder of the best way. For fanatics, the rating remained simply shut sufficient that you simply had to concentrate, simply in case. A little of a letdown after knocking off Auburn final yr, however Yalies needn’t agonize.
43. Grand Canyon Lopes (13-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 81-49 to 4-seed Maryland within the first around
Top win chance: 26% with 16:14 left in first 1/2, main 5-0
The pixie mud from final season’s Cinderella-esque 12-5 disenchanted over Saint Mary’s expired about 10 mins into this recreation, with Grand Canyon merely not able to get anything else happening offense. Remaining yr’s hero Tyon Grant-Foster dropped 23 for his 3rd immediately 20-point NCAA match recreation, however the remainder of the Lopes tallied simply 26 blended, together with 2-for-16 from deep, 2-for-5 on loose throws and one box purpose within the ultimate 7:56.
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42. Troy Trojans (14-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 75-57 to 3-seed Kentucky within the first around
Top win chance: 21% with 3:17 left in first 1/2, trailing by means of 1
Kentucky has observed its justifiable share of disenchanted losses over time, so when the Trojans trailed by means of a unmarried level at 25-24, then pulled again inside six in the second one 1/2, it did not reasonably sound the alarm bells, however it was once completely a scoreboard to observe. Troy continues to be on the lookout for its first NCAA match victory however can grasp its head prime after a loss to a senior-laden, reenergized blue blood.
41. Omaha Mavericks (15-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 83-53 to 2-seed St. John’s within the first around
Top win chance: 16% with 8:47 left in first 1/2, main by means of 6
The general rating does not really mirror the best way the sport performed out: the Mavericks led the Johnnies for some time and made it to halftime with an opportunity to make a run. The three-pointer changed into Omaha’s undoing, alternatively: The Mavericks shot 5-for-36 from deep whilst the Crimson Hurricane thundered to a 12-2 run to open the second one 1/2. For a crew making its NCAA match debut, this was once a valiant effort.
40. Top Level Panthers (13-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 75-63 to 4-seed Purdue within the first around
Top win chance: 27% with 7:23 left in moment 1/2, trailing by means of 3
How about this to your NCAA match debut? A 27% win chance looks like a specifically low quantity taking into account Top Level spent the 1st 30-plus mins inside putting distance, however in all probability it is simply because we might observed Purdue be disenchanted in those eventualities prior to. The Panthers have been declawed overdue, scoring simply as soon as from the 7:00 mark till the overall minute of the sport.
39. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (14-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 82-72 to 3-seed Texas Tech within the first around
Top win chance: 39% with 13:44 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 1
Texas Tech nearly struggled extra towards the Seahawks than it did towards Drake in the second one around; UNC Wilmington held its 3-seed opponent to below 40% taking pictures and was once inside a unmarried ownership with 7:00 left. Heck, the Seahawks even erased a 16-point first-half deficit to take the lead. This one felt like an disenchanted that might in truth occur, which might had been the most important seed disenchanted of the match.
Here is your participation trophy
38. Akron Zips (13-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 93-65 to 4-seed Arizona within the first around
Top win chance: 11% with 13:37 left in first 1/2, with recreation tied
There is no different option to put it: Akron’s protection were given un-Zipped like a jacket at the first day of spring. There were not even any giant runs worthy of list on KenPom’s play-by-play chart for the sport. Akron performs at a tempo the Roadrunner would envy, which inspired Arizona to stay pushing — and ended in 52 Wildcats issues in the second one 1/2.
37. Liberty Flames (12-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 81-52 to 5-seed Oregon within the first around
Top win chance: 25% at tipoff
This one was once over prior to it even began, because of an uncharacteristic evening at the back of the arc for the Flames. Liberty ranked top-5 in D-I in 3-point FG% getting into the sport, however overlooked 13 of its first 14 from deep. The word “reside by means of the three, die by means of the three” hasn’t ever been extra apt.
36. San Diego State Aztecs (11-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 95-68 to 11-seed North Carolina within the First 4
Top win chance: 38% with 16:28 left in first 1/2, main 6-5
That height win chance was once the final lead the Aztecs noticed; they have been in entrance for a complete of 25 seconds. The Tar Heels then went on a 20-2 run, doubled up SDSU on the damage and put it in cruise keep an eye on. First-round exits by no means really feel nice, and San Diego State went winless in each the Mountain West and NCAA tournaments. Aztec fanatics can nonetheless fall again at the identify recreation look from two seasons in the past.
35. Utah State Aggies (10-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 72-47 to 7-seed UCLA within the first around
Top win chance: 45% with 18:21 left in first 1/2, main by means of 3
One specifically poetic side of sports activities, I have discovered, is how groups’ playoff video games and collection are incessantly microcosms in their seasons as an entire. Utah State began the season 10-0 and 16-1 however misplaced 3 of its ultimate six convention video games and 4 of its final six general; the first-round loss to UCLA had equivalent vibes. A powerful get started for the plucky Aggies left them inside one ownership a lot of the hole 1/2 towards a awesome Bruins squad. Two times after halftime, Utah State went five-plus mins with out scoring.
34. VCU Rams (11-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 80-71 to 6-seed BYU within the first around
Top win chance: 56% with 18:47 left in first 1/2, main 5-0
The primary 16 mins have been gained by means of BYU 27-26. The following 8 mins have been gained by means of BYU 27-8. It was once a commonplace tale amongst favorites on this yr’s tournaments: The halftime pep communicate and early second-half outburst to position the sport away. For the entire love VCU will get annually, the Rams have not gained within the NCAA match since 2016 and have not reached the Candy 16 since their magical 2011 run.
33. Louisville Cardinals (8-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 89-75 to 9-seed Creighton within the first around
Top win chance: 57% with 16:57 left in first 1/2, main 5-2
The much-maligned ACC did not get a large number of defenders right through the match as Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina all did not advance to the second one around. Accidents changed into the Cardinals’ downfall, as senior guard Reyne Smith reinjured his ankle within the loss and James Scott additionally performed simply 15 scoreless mins of his personal. It was once a somber finish to an differently surprising turnaround season for Louisville.
32. Georgia Bulldogs (9-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 89-68 to 8-seed Gonzaga within the first around
Top win chance: 27% after successful the hole bounce ball (down to one% at 10-minute mark)
Woof.
Undoubtedly some UGA fanatics had prime hopes to topple the opposite G____a Bulldogs, however others most likely knew it will be a difficult recreation. In spite of everything, the Zags have been preferred by means of 7.5 in an 8-9 recreation. However even Adam Morrison may just now not have predicted a 27-3 beatdown prior to the second one media timeout. Extra might be stated, however it all provides as much as soccer season beginning early within the Peach State.
Silver linings playbook
31. Baylor Bears (9-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 89-66 to 1-seed Duke within the around of 32
Top win chance: 31% with 9:32 left in first 1/2, main by means of 2
The nice: a second-round shellacking way much less as a 9-seed going towards some of the perfect groups within the nation. The unhealthy: it was once nonetheless a second-round shellacking and the fourth season in a row Scott Drew’s Bears have failed to flee the hole weekend. The silver lining? Baylor will nonetheless be considered one of simply 4 groups to chop down the nets prior to now 5 seasons.
30. McNeese Cowboys (12-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 76-62 to Purdue within the around of 32
Top win chance: 23% at tipoff
Will Wade’s Cowboys (or must I say Amir Khan’s Cowboys) stayed true to their identification in each match video games, forcing the Boilermakers into 19 turnovers. However slightly than blitzing the opponent, as McNeese did towards Clemson, it was once the Southland squad’s end up of the gate, trailing 20-8 prior to the second one media timeout. Ah properly, we will all the time have the locker room celebrations and growth field tunnel vibes.
29. Drake Bulldogs (11-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 77-64 to 3-seed Texas Tech within the around of 32
Top win chance: 62% with 10:52 left in first 1/2, main by means of 6
Does it sting somewhat to lose by means of 13 when the sum of all of your losses for the season added as much as 13? Possibly. Does it sting much more to have two immediately coaches go away for larger jobs right away following NCAA match exits? Nearly no doubt. However a 31-win season capped by means of an 11-6 seed disenchanted softens the blow.
28. Saint Mary’s Gaels (7-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 80-66 to 2-seed Alabama within the around of 32
Top win chance: 35% with 11:45 left in first 1/2, with recreation tied
Because the trainer at a mid-major college with best 2,700 undergraduates, Randy Bennett has finished an unbelievable task getting the Gaels into the NCAA match constantly (11 appearances in 24 seasons, together with 4 immediately). However in spite of being a 7-seed this yr, and a 5-seed each and every of the former 3 seasons, Saint Mary’s nonetheless hasn’t observed the Candy 16 since 2010. A matchup with Alabama was once, to cite J.Okay. Simmons’ persona in ‘Whiplash,’ “now not reasonably my pace,” and the Tide held the Gaels at arm’s duration for a lot of the sport.
So shut, but up to now
27. American College Eagles (16-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 83-72 to Mount St. Mary’s within the First 4
Top win chance: 61% with 13:17 left in first 1/2, main by means of 3
The Eagles have been locked in a lifeless warmth for a lot of the sport, however went chilly from the sector, going scoreless for over six mins and falling at the back of by means of 17. American was once preferred by means of 2.5 on this one, so there may be nonetheless somewhat of sadness concerned for the Patriot League champs.
26. Oklahoma Sooners (9-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 67-59 to 8-seed UConn within the first around
Top win chance: 53% with 9:03 left in second 1/2, main by means of 1
Being the thirteenth crew in a row to lose to UConn within the NCAA match wasn’t the issue for the Sooners. What made it extra irritating was once the way it came about. Oklahoma shot 3-for-17 from deep and but was once nonetheless within the combine on the under-four damage. If a pair extra photographs had touched nylon, we would possibly’ve observed the Huskies packing up a around previous. Nonetheless, it was once Oklahoma’s fifteenth loss since we rang within the new yr, so a longer term most likely wasn’t anticipated.
25. Xavier Musketeers (11-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 86-73 to 6-seed Illinois within the first around
Top win chance: 51% with 17:12 left in first 1/2, main 6-2
The defeat to Illinois wasn’t superb, however it pales compared to what came about only a few days later. The Ache Index is supposed to quantify the woe felt after a loss; does that imply it will probably observe to a lack of a trainer as properly? Sean Miller beat Texas within the First 4 after which took the pinnacle training task … at Texas … lower than per week later. The committee does not create narratives when seeding the match, however consider an international the place Texas and Xavier meet once more subsequent season. Grasp the popcorn.
24. UCLA Bruins (7-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 67-58 to 2-seed Tennessee within the around of 32
Top win chance: 49% with 6:59 left in first 1/2, main by means of 3
It was once going to be a difficult street to climb for the Bruins enjoying with two starters at the bench because of foul hassle (neither Eric Dailey Jr. nor Skyy Clark noticed the courtroom within the ultimate 17 mins of the hole 1/2). But it surely was once in truth a 22-6 Vols run spanning each halves that was once the nail within the proverbial coffin for UCLA: the Bruins would not get the margin below 10 till the overall ownership.
23. Illinois Preventing Illini (6-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 84-75 to 3-seed Kentucky within the around of 32
Top win chance: 49% with 16:42 left in first 1/2, main by means of 1
The Illini have been a crew of runs all season lengthy, for higher and for worse. So it was once extraordinarily predictable they’d just about erase a 12-point first-half deficit — best to right away cough up a 12-0 Kentucky run in go back. Rooting for the orange and blue this season had the charisma of a roulette wheel, so it was once just a topic of time prior to the ball landed on inexperienced 00. However this one felt higher than the 33-2 UConn run that ended Illinois’ match in final yr’s Elite 8, and Brad Underwood nonetheless were given his crew to the match for a 5th immediately season.
22. Creighton Bluejays (9-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 82-70 to 1-seed Auburn within the around of 32
Top win chance: 48% with 14:13 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 2
The Bluejays threw the whole thing that they had at Auburn for two-thirds of the sport, with neither crew main by means of greater than 5 till the 13:07 mark. Creighton merely ran out of gasoline on the finish, going scoreless for over six mins towards the total peak seed and was once not able to get well from there. Ryan Kalkbrenner ends his 169-game profession with a minimum of one NCAA match win in all 5 seasons in Omaha.
21. New Mexico Lobos (10-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 71-63 to 2-seed Michigan State within the around of 32
Top win chance: 66% with 8:12 left in first 1/2, main by means of 10
The Mountain West has particularly struggled within the NCAA match lately, save for San Diego State’s nationwide identify recreation run a couple of seasons again. The Lobos disenchanted Marquette and have been poised to do the similar right here, however it’s just about unimaginable to stay Michigan State down. New Mexico did not path till the second one 1/2, however foul hassle gave Sparty sufficient issues to seal the deal.
20. Robert Morris Colonials (15-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 90-81 to 2-seed Alabama within the first around
Top win chance: 48% with 6:52 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 1
It is onerous to name what transpired “painful” in any sense, as Robert Morris were given as regards to its largest win in program historical past. However there is a little bit of “what if” mirrored image available after the Colonials took a 65-64 lead with 7:10 left (particularly since Saint Mary’s by no means led by means of multiple towards Alabama, both). Six immediately overlooked box objectives gave the Tide sufficient cushion to loosen up, however another made shot may have in point of fact made issues attention-grabbing.
We aren’t mad, simply dissatisfied
19. Iowa State Cyclones (3-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 91-78 to 6-seed Ole Omit
Top win chance: 85% with 14:00 left in first 1/2, main by means of 7
Even though you chalk it as much as accidents, which the Cyclones handled greater than just about another crew this yr, one thing simply felt off about this recreation. Iowa State’s worst FG% allowed in any recreation prior to now 3 seasons (the Rebels shot 58%) got here on the worst conceivable time, and the 13-point margin of defeat in truth paints a rosier image: Iowa State was once down by means of 26 at one level.
18. Kansas Jayhawks (7-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 79-72 to 10-seed Arkansas within the first around
Top win chance: 75% with 4:55 left in first 1/2, main by means of 3
A disappointing finish to a disappointing season for the Jayhawks, who earned their worst NCAA match seed below Invoice Self and their worst since 2000’s 8-seed. Kansas additionally did not get out of the 1st around for the 1st time since 2006 after making one box purpose within the ultimate 4:55. Unattached fanatics should have liked seeing Self, Rick Pitino and John Calipari all below one roof, however KU devoted are taking a look at chalk that were given rocked slightly than chanting “Rock Chalk.”
17. Missouri Tigers (6-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 67-57 to 11-seed Drake within the first around
Top win chance: 74% with 13:29 left in first 1/2, main by means of 2
The Tigers’ final lead got here with the rating at 7-5. Missouri in point of fact twisted the knife in the second one 1/2 by means of trimming a 15-point deficit to at least one level with 4:28 left, however then went ice chilly down the stretch and misplaced by means of double digits. Part of the SEC groups within the match reached the Candy 16; Missouri was once the one some of the 14 to lose to a crew more than one seed strains worse.
16. Marquette Golden Eagles (7-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 75-66 to 10-seed New Mexico within the first around
Top win chance: 70% with 11:56 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 3
Any other yr, any other earlier-than-expected match go out for the Golden Eagles. That is the 3rd immediately season Marquette has been eradicated by means of a worse-seeded crew (it misplaced the former two years to 7- and 11-seeds, respectively, as a 2-seed). This yr’s team did not have the lofty expectancies of 2023 and 2024, however permitting a 10-0 run within the ultimate mins isn’t just disheartening, however par for the route not too long ago.
15. Memphis Tigers (5-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 78-70 to 12-seed Colorado State within the first around
Top win chance: 75% with 19:48 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 7
If you happen to clicked in this matchup at the Match Problem web page when filling out your bracket, you learn the next research of the Tigers: “The Tigers’ report contains wins over Michigan State, Missouri, Clemson, Ole Omit and UConn — all shut video games. Memphis additionally misplaced at domestic to non-tourney crew Arkansas State by means of 13 and performed shut video games towards lesser pageant right through the season, shedding to Temple and rarely beating UTSA and Rice. Be expecting dramatic finishes irrespective of the opponent.”
We attempted to provide you with a warning. With out guard Tyrese Hunter, Memphis did not have the firepower to shout down all those that stated the Tigers have been over-seeded.
Emotional curler coaster
14. North Carolina Tar Heels (11-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 71-64 to 6-seed Ole Omit within the first around
Top win chance: 56% at tipoff
Take into accout the purpose a couple of crew’s match consequence being a microcosm for its season? Presenting Show off B: The Tar Heels have been 1-12 in Quad 1 video games and smashed towards all different pageant (21-1 W-L). The ones 12 Q1 losses integrated 4 one-possession heartbreakers and more than one different shut calls. Sneaking into the match, beating San Diego State by means of 27 in what amounted to a Quad 2 recreation after which shedding to Ole Omit in a Quad 1 recreation after a livid 20-point comeback fell quick? Quentin Tarantino could not have written a greater script.
13. Texas A&M Aggies (4-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 91-79 to 5-seed Michigan within the around of 32
Top win chance: 89% with 13:17 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 10
Reproduction-paste without delay from the Illinois blurb. A&M was once by no means outworked in a recreation this season, however it was once susceptible to offensive lulls that portended a untimely bracket go out. The Aggies led for almost all of the second one 1/2 towards Michigan however surrendered a 16-3 run that in the end ended in their loss of life. Reasonably surprising and below the radar was once the truth that Texas A&M had best 3 makes an attempt blocked by means of Michigan’s large males within the center, in spite of permitting the absolute best block charge in all of D-I this season.
12. Texas Longhorns (11-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 86-80 to 11-seed Xavier within the First 4
Top win chance: 91% with 12:26 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 10
The Longhorns have been broadly anticipated by means of bracketologists to omit the NCAA match, however snuck into the sector for an opportunity on the First 4. They led many of the recreation, together with by means of double digits for a big portion, however surrendered 29 issues within the ultimate 10:00. Even nonetheless, the Longhorns had an opportunity to tie within the ultimate minute.
11. Oregon Geese (5-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 87-83 to 4-seed Arizona within the around of 32
Top win chance: 77% with 13:44 left in first 1/2, main by means of 14
Arizona was once all the time going to head so far as Caleb Love took them. That Oregon was once even shut, in spite of Love’s 29 issues and 5 triples, is a feat by itself. However this assembly of former Pac-12 faculties felt find it irresistible had a bit additional at the line. A fifteen-point Geese lead was once erased as briefly because it was once shaped, after which Oregon was once enjoying catch-up the remainder of the sport. 4 other instances, they were given inside one ownership right through the end-of-game foul frenzy, but Arizona refused any possibilities at taking the tying 3. We stored looking ahead to the massive shot that by no means arrived.
10. St. John’s Crimson Hurricane (2-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 75-66 to 10-seed Arkansas within the around of 32
Top win chance: 76% with 2:38 left in first 1/2, main by means of 4
Image John Calipari making a song Shania Twain like this: “K, so that you gained the Giant East… That do not provoke me a lot.” “K, so that you beat Omaha… That do not provoke me a lot.”
The Crimson Hurricane shot 2-for-22 from deep, RJ Luis Jr. overlooked 11 box objectives throughout the arc and it felt like everybody was once going to foul out if the sport went to extra time. St. John’s had a dominant season derailed as it could not adapt. No crew will get during the NCAA match gauntlet with out a tight whistle in a recreation or two, and in spite of 28 offensive rebounds, the Johnnies had a quiet go back and forth go into reverse the I-95 from Windfall.
9. Clemson Tigers (5-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 69-67 to 12-seed McNeese within the first around
Top win chance: 83% with 16:48 left in first 1/2, main 4-2
Following up an Elite 8 look with a first-round disenchanted loss is a letdown. Doing so by means of scoring 13 issues within the first 1/2 towards a 12-seed is painful at its core. But by some means, this defeat had the whole thing: turnovers, overlooked 3s, even a livid comeback that gave you hope — simply to show round and hand you the L as soon as once more. The loss would possibly had been much less painful if the Tigers hadn’t confirmed up in the second one 1/2.
If you happen to had one shot or one alternative
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 75-72 to 9-seed Baylor within the first around
Top win chance: 54% with 1:19 left in moment 1/2, trailing by means of 1
The comeback bid that falls simply quick incessantly creates extra anguish than a blowout loss. The Bulldogs had only a 5% probability to win with 8:11 left, trailing by means of 11, however stormed again to drag inside one with seconds ultimate. Claudell Harris Jr.’s shot would not fall and Mississippi State was once left with an opening-round defeat.
7. St. Francis (PA) Crimson Flash (16-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 70-68 to 16-seed Alabama State within the First 4
Top win chance: 79% with 16:29 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 8
For a crew with a 16-18 report, making the NCAA match must had been thrilling sufficient to keep away from the anguish of shedding. However the Crimson Flash led many of the moment 1/2 in their First 4 recreation towards Alabama State, had the ball with an opportunity to tie or win within the ultimate seconds — and grew to become it over. A final-second recreation winner by means of Alabama State made St. Francis the 1st crew to lose on this yr’s match.
6. Wisconsin Badgers (3-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 91-89 to 6-seed BYU within the around of 32
Top win chance: 53% at tipoff
The “Preventing Tonjes” by no means led towards BYU, however that does not imply the sport wasn’t shut. Because the country’s chief in loose throws, it is becoming that John Tonje went 14-16 from the charity stripe, together with a great 11-11 within the ultimate 13 mins. The Badgers post 53 issues in the second one 1/2 enjoying on the higher tempo they would followed this season, their quickest in over 30 seasons. There was once just one downside: BYU’s offense flourishes in an up-and-down atmosphere and accordingly post 91 issues. Wisconsin compelled more than one turnovers overdue, final the space fast sufficient that they did not want to foul. After an extraordinary defensive prevent, Tonje discovered himself with an opportunity to pressure extra time, however his off-balance iso jumper overlooked the whole thing. Exhale for Cougar fanatics, sighs of sorrow for the Bucky Badger devoted.
5. Gonzaga Bulldogs (8-seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: 81-76 to 1-seed Houston within the around of 32
Top win chance: 48% with 21 seconds left in moment 1/2, trailing by means of 1
One of the most first issues the varsity hoops group spotted when the bracket was once printed was once the Zags getting an 8-seed — admittedly, a becoming spot in keeping with résumé on my own, however a drastic underestimation of the crew’s energy that may anticipate the inevitable 1-8 matchup. Houston, we would possibly have had an issue. Because the Cougars maintained a lead of anyplace between seven to twelve issues, it felt like Gonzaga would possibly pass down with out a struggle. Then the Bulldogs rattled off a 10-1 run, held Houston with out a box purpose for the overall 4:30 and located themselves down 3 with the ball on the recreation’s finish. However Khalif Combat’s shot was once blocked, and Gonzaga’s nine-season streak of Candy 16s is now snapped.
4. UC San Diego Tritons (12-seed, South)
How they misplaced: 68-65 to 5-seed Michigan within the first around
Top win chance: 60% with 2:29 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 2
Of the 4 groups making their NCAA match debut, this one hurts probably the most. The Tritons have been 30-4, hadn’t misplaced in two months, have been best two-point underdogs and had the way of play to check the Giant Ten match champs. One of the most perfect 3-point taking pictures groups in D-I, UCSD had considered one of its worst taking pictures nights, however nonetheless led a 5-seed within the ultimate mins and had an opportunity to tie it on the buzzer. This had the entire makings of an disenchanted, however UCSD simply could not recover from the hump.
3. Vanderbilt Commodores (10-seed, East)
How they misplaced: 59-56 to 7-seed Saint Mary’s within the first around
Top win chance: 89% with 15:06 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 12
A slow-paced combat and a decent unfold had the entire makings of a “final crew with the ball wins” vintage, and that’s the reason necessarily what came about — however best for the reason that Commodores could not close the door. Vandy led Saint Mary’s by means of double digits in the second one 1/2 however scored best 11 issues in a 14-minute span to permit the Gaels to seize the lead. As Devin McGlockton’s last-second jumper clanged off the iron, it marked the fourth immediately loss for Vanderbilt in a season that started out with promise.
What simply came about?!
2. UConn Huskies (8-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 77-75 to 1-seed Florida within the around of 32
Top win chance: 77% with 9:05 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 6
The 2-time protecting nationwide champion Huskies understood the project. Care for the ball, shield, make a couple of key photographs overdue. They raced to a six-point lead out of the 1/2 and led for the following 17 mins. The dream for a three-peat was once alive and properly, and the top-seeded Gators — picked to win all of it in 21% of Match Problem brackets, the second one maximum of any crew — regarded uneasy for many of the recreation. Brackets have been about to be in shambles. After which a transfer flipped. UConn went scoreless for almost two mins, Florida went on an 8-0 run sparked by means of more than one offensive rebounds off overlooked loose throws and, identical to that, the dream is lifeless.
1. Colorado State Rams (12-seed, West)
How they misplaced: 72-71 to 4-seed Maryland
Top win chance: 84% with :06 left in moment 1/2, main by means of 1
Annually, there may be one recreation you simply know is a lock to be featured in One Shining Second. The buzzer-beating off-hand floater from Derik Queen right away changed into some of the defining photographs of the season. Just one double-digit seed reached the Candy 16 this yr, however Colorado State was once about to make it two — and turn into the lone consultant from a non-power convention to make the second one weekend. Jalen Lake hit the go-ahead 3 with six seconds left. The Rams even led by means of 12 within the first 1/2 and regarded the a part of a real Cinderella. As a substitute, it is heartbreak for CSU and insanity for Maryland.
