Mar 20, 2025, 03:46 PM ET
South Carolina entered the ladies’s NCAA match undefeated and because the heavy favourite every of the previous two years. However this season, each crew a few of the height 16 seeds has a minimum of two losses — this means that the combat for the nationwide championship feels extra huge open.
That stated, no crew seeded beneath No. 3 has ever gained the NCAA girls’s faculty basketball name. 3 have carried out it because the No. 3 seed, maximum just lately LSU in 2023.
Early-round upsets have grow to be extra not unusual, even at the house courts of top-16 seeds. It came about 3 times ultimate 12 months, with No. 5 seeds Colorado and Baylor and No. 7 Duke advancing to the Candy 16.
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How do the No. 1 seeds stack up this 12 months? South Carolina is attempting to copy, whilst Texas (2004) and USC (1986) search their first Ultimate 4 in a very long time, and UCLA seeks its first within the NCAA generation.
Which crew would be the ultimate one status when the nets are lower down on April 6 on the Amalie Enviornment in Tampa, Florida?
In spite of being the No. 2 general seed in the back of the Bruins, South Carolina is the most well liked pick out to win the 2025 name amongst just about two dozen girls’s faculty basketball analysts, writers and commentators we polled throughout ESPN. 9 of 23 citizens picked the Gamecocks to win all of it. UConn, a No. 2 seed searching for its first championship since Breanna Stewart’s senior 12 months in 2016, had the second-most votes at seven, adopted by means of 3 votes apiece for USC and UCLA.
ESPN seems to be on the box and what we may see within the early rounds and past.
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What’s every 1-seed’s doable flaw?
Alexa Philippou: UCLA is in somewhat uncharted territory, as none of its avid gamers have performed past the Candy 16; trainer Cori Shut has complicated previous that around simply as soon as, in 2018. In its two wins over UCLA, USC was once in a position to decelerate the Bruins by means of making lifestyles hell for Lauren Betts (granted, maximum groups do not have the dimensions and physicality to try this, particularly no longer in Spokane 1). But when that occurs, it makes it much more vital that different avid gamers step up round her. Particularly, the crew shot 7-for-33 on 3-pointers in the ones losses to USC. Examine that to how the Bruins made 10 of 21 3-point makes an attempt of their blowout win over South Carolina in November.
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Michael Voepel: Texas’ offense turns into extra of a priority the deeper the Longhorns move within the match. Texas was once the highest defensive crew within the SEC, protecting warring parties to 55.9 issues, and was once 6th in scoring offense (78.9 PPG). However the Longhorns moderate simply 3.2 3-pointers consistent with sport and shoot 29.6% in the back of the arc. In the event that they advance to the Candy 16, and if seeds cling, they might face Ohio State (6.5 3-pointers consistent with sport, 34.2%). Then TCU (9.6 3’s consistent with sport, 37.6%) may well be up subsequent within the regional ultimate. So there shall be numerous drive on Texas’ protection to make it tougher for groups to hit from the outdoor.
For South Carolina, rebounding is usually a fear. The Gamecocks are averaging 42.5 RPG, their lowest since their present Ultimate 4 run started in 2021. All over that point, the Gamecocks’ very best rebounding season was once in 2022-23, once they have been moment in Department I at 49.5 RPG. The Gamecocks have been outrebounded in every in their losses this season: by means of 7 towards UCLA, by means of 6 towards Texas and by means of 16 towards UConn. In tight video games, rebounding could make all of the distinction.
Charlie Creme: USC can from time to time be too depending on JuJu Watkins. There is no disputing that Kiki Iriafen had an impressive season, and by the point past due February got here, the very popular freshman magnificence, led by means of Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell, was once extra dependable. However there have been video games when it was once Watkins or bust. Every so often it really works, akin to within the Trojans’ first victory over UCLA this season when Watkins scored 38 issues. Losses to Iowa and the Bruins within the Giant Ten championship sport illustrated what can occur when she struggles and there is not any to lend a hand. As soon as the regionals arrive, USC may no longer be capable to win a championship if Watkins is not sensible for the ones ultimate 4 video games.
South Carolina edged UConn as the favourite amongst our citizens. What are the keys to a Gamecocks repeat?
Philippou: It looks like a South Carolina repeat would most probably come by the hands of a dominant match from Joyce Edwards, MiLaysia Fulwiley or each avid gamers. Break of day Staley has a plethora of choices she will put at the flooring — the Gamecocks lead the country with 41.5 bench issues consistent with sport — despite the fact that it ceaselessly looks like those maximum able to converting the complexity of the sport are the ones reserves. It additionally would not be surprising to peer a large sport or two from Tessa Johnson, who stays the crew’s very best 3-point shooter at 41.1% and famously confirmed out within the 2024 nationwide name sport.
Voepel: It is key for the Gamecocks to protect at their perfect degree — they held warring parties to 57.8 PPG — and to get the model of junior ahead Chloe Kitts that gained her SEC match MVP honors. She averaged 16.7 issues and seven.7 rebounds in the ones 3 video games.
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Paige Bueckers excited to be wholesome heading into NCAA match
Paige Bueckers stocks her expectancies for ultimate NCAA match run with UConn prior to shifting directly to the WNBA.
Is that this the 12 months UConn after all wins its first name since 2016?
Voepel: The Huskies have a just right sufficient crew and greater than sufficient motivation to do it. However the trail is hard: They probably must beat 3 No. 1 seeds to win the championship. That makes it an excessively tough process, even for as achieved a program as UConn.
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Philippou: UConn earned my pick out, however as Voepel laid out, it isn’t a very simple rout. The Huskies are not flawless — questions stay about their put up intensity and have an effect on past Sarah Sturdy — however Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Sturdy are arguably the most efficient trio within the nation. That, blended with Geno Auriemma’s skill to get his groups to top in March and the urgency to win for Bueckers in her ultimate 12 months with this system, is usually a unhealthy recipe for opposing groups. There was once not more spectacular win this season than when the Huskies beat South Carolina by means of 29, and whilst they may not shoot that nice every match sport, they nonetheless have extra techniques to win than they have got had the previous few occasions they have got been to the Ultimate 4.
Creme: The components are there: enjoy, intensity, offensive range and, after all, well being. And once a year that Bueckers has been at the courtroom for the NCAA match, the Huskies have reached the Ultimate 4. With a crew this proficient offensively — tops within the country in box objective share and issues consistent with play — taking your next step is within the playing cards. However my pick out for the name is South Carolina, with the Gamecocks narrowly beating UConn within the ultimate. The assembly between those two in February confirmed precisely what those Huskies can accomplish. That model of UConn will win this system’s twelfth name.
Outdoor of the highest 8 groups, who is every other crew seeded 0.33 or decrease that might achieve the Ultimate 4?
Voepel: LSU, the No. 3 seed in Spokane 1, is flying below the radar, particularly for a crew that gained the NCAA name simply two years in the past. The Tigers have been undefeated in nonconference play. Till past due February, their most effective losses have been to No. 1 seeds South Carolina and Texas. Then an time beyond regulation loss at Alabama on Feb. 27 began a skid, they usually input the NCAA match having misplaced 3 in their ultimate 4 video games. Guard Flau’Jae Johnson (shin irritation) hasn’t performed since that Alabama loss, however is anticipated again within the match.
If wholesome, LSU is a perilous crew with Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams as large scoring threats. If seeds cling, LSU may face NC State within the regional semifinals; the Tigers beat the Wolfpack on Nov. 27. After which LSU may face UCLA within the Elite 8; the Tigers beat the Bruins in ultimate 12 months’s Candy 16.
Philippou: I picked Notre Dame to advance to Tampa in my bracket. If the model of the Irish that we noticed on the finish of February and early March presentations up, that variety will glance silly. But when the model that beat USC, Texas and UConn reemerges, that is a crew that might win the nationwide championship. We have prior to now addressed the problems Notre Dame handled on each ends of the ground. Something the Irish can not totally repair is their loss of dominant put up presence — which may well be a subject matter when going up towards the likes of Texas and/or TCU — but when Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron play like the most efficient backcourt trio within the nation, it could be sufficient to make up for it.
Creme: Notre Dame was once additionally one in every of my Ultimate 4 selections, however past the Irish and LSU, let’s watch Tennessee. This Woman Vols crew is exclusive. With first-year trainer Kim Caldwell putting in a gadget that leans on full-court drive, mass substitutions and high-volume 3-point capturing, Tennessee has a method that may make preparation tough for an opponent, particularly in the second one around and regional finals when there’s most effective in the future in between video games. The Woman Vols also are able to capturing themselves out of video games, so they’re a high-risk, high-reward proposition. However it could be amusing to observe the Woman Vols get sizzling and make a run.
Which sport are you maximum having a look ahead to over the primary 4 days?
Voepel: Admittedly, 8-9 video games are meant to be shut. However of the 8-9s, Utah-Indiana may well be superb in Birmingham 2. Each groups have sharpshooters. Utes junior guard Gianna Kneepkens has made 90 3-pointers this season whilst capturing 45% from in the back of the arc. Hoosiers junior guard Yarden Garzon has made 85 treys whilst capturing 41.5%.
Amongst double-digit seeds that may probably pull upsets, let’s keep in Birmingham 2. No. 14 seed Oregon State, a 2024 Elite 8 crew, misplaced so much thru transfers after the death of the Pac-12 and the Beavers’ transfer to the West Coast Convention. However they gained that league match and now face third-seeded North Carolina. No 14 or 15 seed has ever gained an NCAA match sport courting to 1994, when the ladies’s box expanded to 64. May just the Beavers grow to be the primary?
Philippou: The second one around may characteristic 7-seed Vanderbilt vs. 2-seed Duke and 6-seed Michigan vs. 3-seed Notre Dame. Will Commodores freshman phenom Mikayla Blakes and spouse in crime Khamil Pierre go beyond Duke’s hard-nosed protection to attain an enormous disillusioned for Vanderbilt’s first Candy 16 since 2009? Michigan’s newcomers, headlined by means of Syla Swords and Olivia Olson, have buoyed this system this 12 months and the Wolverines just about took down the Gamecocks at first of the season. May just they offer Notre Dame a tricky time in South Bend?
Creme: No. 11 seed Murray State towards No. 6 Iowa is intriguing. The Racers are the rustic’s height scoring crew and Iowa can submit issues too. The tempo of this sport may well be livid. Murray State’s Katelyn Younger has scored over 3,000 issues in her profession. Her particular person matchup with Hannah Stuelke may well be every other sport throughout the sport. If the Racers can pull the disillusioned, Oklahoma most probably awaits, and every other shootout may well be on faucet.
2025 girls’s NCAA match Ultimate 4 and nationwide championship selections
Predicted nationwide championship sport matchup
Andrea Adelson: UConn over South Carolina
Jay Modify: UConn over South Carolina
Kendra Andrews: South Carolina over USC
Krista Blunk: UCLA over Texas
Mike Couzens: UConn over South Carolina
Charlie Creme: South Carolina over UConn
Courtney Cronin: UConn over South Carolina
Wes Durham: South Carolina over UCLA
Kelly Gramlich: Notre Dame over UCLA
Angel Grey: UCLA over South Carolina
Tiffany Greene: South Carolina over UConn
Jenn Hildreth: USC over Texas
Chuckie Kempf: USC over Notre Dame
Joe Malfa: UConn over Notre Dame
Anne O’Neil: South Carolina over LSU
Kevin Pelton: UConn over South Carolina
Alexa Philippou: UConn over South Carolina
Roy Philpott: South Carolina over UConn
Kelsey Riggs Cuff: USC over South Carolina
Angela Taylor: UCLA over South Carolina
Christy Thomaskutty: South Carolina over UConn
Michael Voepel: South Carolina over UCLA
Helen Williams: South Carolina over USC
