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Doug Greenberg
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David Purdum
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David Purdum
ESPN Body of workers Author
- Joined ESPN in 2014
- Journalist overlaying playing trade since 2008
Mar 18, 2025, 09:17 AM ET
March Insanity arrives with a bevy of storylines: a freshman phenom, a juggernaut convention and a two-time protecting champion that starts the week as a 100-1 lengthy shot to win a 3rd name.
As everybody rages over North Carolina’s inclusion within the First 4, the having a bet public is siding with Duke to win all of it. Extra bets were positioned and more cash wagered at the Blue Devils to win the nationwide championship than some other crew at a couple of sportsbooks this season. The motion on Duke is not slowing down both, sportsbooks say, even with famous person freshman Cooper Flagg running his long ago from an ankle damage suffered closing week within the ACC match.
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The biggest reported wager up to now, alternatively, used to be on SEC match champion Florida. BetMGM reported taking a $100,000 wager on March 6 from a bettor in Pennsylvania at the Gators at 9-1 to win the nationwide championship. Extra giant bets are all the time at the means this time of yr all the way through one of the crucial well-liked having a bet occasions in American sports activities.
An estimated $3.1 billion could have been wager at the males’s and ladies’s tournaments with U.S. sportsbooks over the following 3 weeks, consistent with the American Gaming Affiliation, with the majority of that being wagered within the first 4 complete days of the match.
Listed here are the having a bet storylines we are following because the match starts:
Odds are correct as of newsletter time. For the most recent odds, move to ESPN BET.
Purple Flagg?
Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils have attracted probably the most bets and most monetary wagered at a couple of sportsbooks forward of the 2025 NCAA match. Photograph through Lance King/Getty Pictures
Duke entered the 2024-25 common season as +900 favorites to win all of it, heading into the marketing campaign with 2024’s most sensible recruit, Cooper Flagg, at the roster. 4 months later, the Blue Devils stay atop sportsbook odds forums (+300 at ESPN BET), marking the 9th time Duke has entered the match because the having a bet favourite and the primary time since 2019.
Alternatively, there is a cloud of uncertainty placing over the Devils after Flagg went down with an ankle damage all the way through the ACC match. Head trainer Jon Scheyer instructed ESPN that the objective is for Flagg to play in Duke’s first match sport Friday, a matchup in opposition to both American or Mount St. Mary’s.
Whilst it is still noticed how sportsbooks will handicap Duke in that sport or any of the next video games, they have got needed to grapple with the way to maintain the crew within the futures marketplace amid Flagg’s damage.
“We stored the NCAA match odds up, by no means taking them down. We drifted Duke up from +325 to +375 after we noticed the Cooper Flagg damage,” Caesars Sportsbook’s head of faculty hoops Richard Zanco instructed ESPN, including that the ebook very in brief introduced +700.
Zanco estimates that Flagg, when absolutely wholesome, is price more or less “4.5 to five” issues to the unfold.
Duke used to be a highly regarded play within the nationwide championship futures marketplace all season sooner than Flagg’s damage, taking a majority of the tickets and cash at a number of main sportsbooks, together with at ESPN BET, the place the Blue Devils had a number one 21% of bets and 16% of maintain previous to Sunday evening’s bracket disclose. Since Variety Sunday, Duke has taken a number one 40% of the cash on the sportsbook, together with a $28,125 bet at +320 odds, which is the most important in this yr’s match at ESPN BET up to now.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello describes Duke as “a gorgeous just right danger” given the crew’s reputation all season lengthy.
“There is not any love misplaced indubitably for sportsbooks if Flagg did not play, however it will certain remove from the match too,” he instructed ESPN. “So, I would like to peer him be in that lineup to peer if Duke could make a run at it.”
Go back of the underdog
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0:45
Texas Longhorns’ NCAA males’s match preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down Texas’ NCAA match potentialities.
Choosing March Insanity video games, whether or not to your bracket or on a game-by-game having a bet foundation, all the time proves extraordinarily tough, however closing yr’s festivities added a brand new wrinkle that made it most likely even tougher.
40 favorites coated the unfold in closing season’s match, tied for probably the most in any match since no less than 1985, consistent with ESPN Analysis. The ensuing .597 quilt share used to be the fourth supreme over that period of time.
At the turn aspect, the 27 underdogs to hide tied for the 5th fewest since 1985, with the .403 underdog quilt share the fourth lowest over that period of time.
Avello regards closing yr as an “aberration” for the reason that males’s NCAA match is an atmosphere the place underdogs most often thrive, given they most often face much less power to win than the favorites, in particular within the early rounds.
“Take into account that we set traces on those video games and the purpose unfold is the equalizer. So if the favorites quilt within the equalizing line, then it isn’t that we had been improper, it is simply that that they had a just right day or the opposite crew had a foul day,” he stated. “I believe our traces presently of the yr are in reality forged. We now have had an entire season of basketball and we have been in a position to regulate and make those traces, make the crew’s scores beautiful sturdy. So it isn’t about some degree unfold being improper, it is near to favorites occurring some more or less a run.”
Bettors appear to be expecting a bounce-back from the underdogs, no less than within the opening around. BetMGM reviews that every one of its most-bet cash traces through tickets are on underdogs:
It additionally lists Akron +13.5 (vs. Arizona) and Prime Level +8.5 (vs. Purdue) as two of its most-bet spreads.
Guess monitoring app Pikkit says that its 4 most-bet spreads through cash also are for underdogs:
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UC San Diego +2.5 (vs. Michigan)
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Prime Level +8.5 (vs. Purdue)
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Drake +6.5 (vs. Missouri)
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Akron +13.5 (vs. Arizona)
It simply way extra
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3:52
SEC Pick out’em: All issues males’s and ladies’s NCAA tournaments
The SEC Now group makes their choices for the groups with the most important X-factor and the ones on disappointed watch in addition to their Candy 16 predictions and nationwide champion choices.
After a 2024-25 common season that hyped the SEC as probably the most supreme meetings in males’s faculty basketball historical past, a report 14 groups from the league made the NCAA match.
Main the sphere is Auburn, which locked up the No. 1 total seed and is +500 to win the name at ESPN BET after opening the season at +2500. The Tigers temporarily jumped to favourite standing in overdue November and held that difference for far of the season, however their present odds are in reality the longest they have got had since mid-January.
Editor’s Choices
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That is partially because of an enormous surge from Florida, recently 2nd favourite (+380 at ESPN BET) to win the nationwide championship at the back of Duke; it is the first time the Gators are probably the most most sensible two name favorites since 2014. Florida made a bigger soar up the chances board than Auburn, opening the season at +6000 and getting into convention play at +2200.
The Gators’ lengthy odds and normal reputation for far of the season have made them an issue for sportsbooks. BetMGM lists Florida as one in all its biggest liabilities (together with Duke and Michigan State), owing a lot of it to the huge wager it took at the Gators in early March. ESPN BET reviews 11% of bets and 10% of maintain backing Florida total, with a number one 23% of wagers coming in for the reason that bracket disclose.
The Gators additionally dangle the honor of being tied as the most important favourite of the primary around, as Florida and Houston are each 28.5-point favorites for his or her first-round contests. At 26-8, the Gators are the third-best crew in opposition to the unfold within the box.
Notes at the SEC
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Alabama is ESPN BET’s fifth-most-backed crew to win the nationwide championship through bets and maintain, attracting 6% of each and every.
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BetMGM took a $1,000 bet on Missouri to win the nationwide championship at 125-1 odds.
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In a while following the bracket disclose, Texas A&M lengthened from +5000 to +7500 to win the nationwide championship.
Odds & Ends
Males’s NCAA match video games closing season averaged 145.0 issues in step with sport closing yr, a five-year prime. In spite of the higher scoring, 55.2% of match video games closing season went beneath the whole. There were extra unders than overs in each and every of the previous 5 tournaments and, total, 56% of match video games have long past beneath the whole all the way through that span.
Perfect groups in match box in opposition to the unfold
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Robert Morris: 26-7 ATS (.788)
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UC San Diego: 25-7 ATS (.781)
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Florida: 26-8 ATS (.765)
Worst groups in match box in opposition to the unfold
Giant post-bracket odds strikes
UConn moved from 50-1 to 100-1 to win the nationwide championship on Sunday afternoon, the most important bracket-related trade in odds at ESPN BET. The 2-time protecting champion Huskies, who’re the No. 8 seed within the West Regional, have coated the unfold in a report 12 consecutive NCAA match video games.
Different bracket-related strikes at ESPN BET integrated:
Making improvements to groups
Groups that stepped forward probably the most in Caesars Sportsbook oddsmaker Richard Zanco’s energy scores during the last part of the common season:
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Michigan State: “Many have discounted the Spartans all yr, however they have got that stifling protection,” Zanco stated, noting that Michigan State’s name odds shortened from 40-1 to 15-1 over the last 60 days.
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Kentucky: Zanco stated the battle-tested Wildcats were garnering some consideration from bettors lately. Kentucky starts the week at round 40-1 to win the nationwide championship.
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Missouri: The Tigers’ name odds have moved from 200-1 to 80-1 in fresh weeks at Caesars Sportsbook. “They have regarded spectacular beneath [coach] Dennis Gates, however they play little protection, which might price them down the stretch within the match,” Zanco stated.
