Mar 10, 2025, 07:45 AM ET
Duke and Auburn have excelled all season, so it isn’t sudden that the 2 groups are entrance and middle getting into Champ Week.
Following the Blue Devils’ win over the Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium, each groups located themselves to safe the highest general seed within the NCAA match. However this week’s matchups may just affect the combat for that spot, along with the Picket Award pageant between Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome.
There is extra intrigue around the board as we input the overall stretch of Champ Week. North Carolina wishes a run within the ACC match to earn an at-large invitation to the dance on Variety Sunday — and assist the league steer clear of its lowest collection of NCAA match berths in 1 / 4 century. In the meantime, the SEC has 3 groups (Florida, Tennessee and Alabama) that might additionally gather a No. 1 seed in line with effects from this week. The league has additionally had a historical season that might result in a record-breaking collection of bids known as on Variety Sunday. Kansas will want a rally within the Large 12 match to steer clear of a problematic matchup within the first around. Indiana is taking a look to fasten up a place whilst on its head trainer’s farewell excursion.
That is simply the key leagues. All through Champ Week, we will be told extra in regards to the crew’s that may continue to exist March and in all probability win the nationwide championship. We will additionally establish the squads that might ruin all of the ones plans, too. ESPN’s Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello and Joe Lunardi deal with all of it.
Is Auburn nonetheless the No. 1 general seed?
Jeff Borzello: I say sure, despite the fact that the Tigers’ margin for error has reduced in size after dropping two in a row to finish the steady season. That mentioned, their résumé remains to be traditionally robust. They have got 16 Quadrant 1 wins, via some distance probably the most within the nation, and 21 wins in Quadrants 1 and a pair of, additionally probably the most within the nation. They rank No. 1 in all 3 résumé-based metrics and sit down within the peak 3 in each and every of the opposite 4 teamsheet metrics. Auburn received the most productive league within the nation and in addition treated a troublesome nonconference time table. May just Duke overtake it with an ACC match championship and an early Auburn go out within the SEC tourney — making an allowance for the Blue Devils’ head-to-head win again in December? It is imaginable, however I believe the committee nonetheless provides it to Bruce Pearl’s crew.
Editor’s Alternatives
2 Similar
Myron Medcalf: I agree that the perception of Auburn because the No. 1 general seed feels much less sure than it did per week in the past. However the variety committee has been public about selling that additionally it is incorporating different metrics to believe its alternatives. If that is the case, Auburn’s edge stays. The Tigers are first in KPI. They are first in energy of listing, which considers a crew’s listing towards the caliber of fighters it confronted. They are first in wins above bubble, which measures a crew’s luck in comparison to how a bubble crew would have fared towards the similar pageant. Plus, Auburn’s sheer benefit within the collection of Quad I matchups (20) on its time table this season in comparison to Duke (10) issues.
Joe Lunardi: May just Auburn lose its SEC quarterfinal and surrender the highest spot to a surging Duke or Houston (or a separate champion from its personal convention)? I assume. It might be 3 losses in a row for the Tigers at that time. On the finish of the day, despite the fact that, nobody’s coming as regards to Auburn’s spectacular 16-4 Quad 1 listing. Until the committee has an surprising exchange of center with appreciate to the way it values a crew’s general frame of labor, the Tigers would be the first to listen to their title on Variety Sunday.
Quite a lot of groups have flirted with a 1-seed this season. Who’s possibly to enroll in Auburn and Duke at the peak line?
Borzello: Going into Champ Week, I believe Houston and Florida are in a powerful place to earn the overall 1-seeds. Houston’s numbers are elite, score within the peak 3 in 5 of the seven metrics utilized by the choice committee, and it has 11 Quad 1 wins — handiest Auburn and Michigan State have extra. The Cougars have additionally misplaced handiest as soon as since November. Florida seems to be to have the brink some of the SEC choices after beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa remaining week. Do the Gators have to visit the identify recreation to stay that spot? They might most likely have to overcome Alabama once more within the SEC semifinal.
Males’s Match Problem
Join now to play the number one Males’s bracket recreation for FREE! $135,000 in prizes.
Play Males’s Match Problem
Medcalf: I believe Houston’s a lock for the 3rd No. 1 seed. Yearly, the committee turns out to resent the concept that the “eye take a look at” performs a task within the bracket, however one have a look at a Houston recreation all over its 23-1 stretch to finish the season would display the Cougars are worthy of a peak slot. Plus, the important thing metrics love them. I additionally assume Florida has earned the fourth No. 1 seed on account of how the Gators completed off the steady season (seven top-50 wins since Feb. 1). They received their handiest matchups with Alabama and Auburn, respectively, and break up with Tennessee. An Alabama SEC match run may just exchange my thoughts, despite the fact that.
Lunardi: Houston goes to be a No. 1 seed. The Cougars went 19-1 within the Large 12 and received what is recently projected to be an eight-bid league via a daft 4 video games. The one race left is amongst 3 SEC groups — Florida, Alabama and Tennessee — for the remaining spot at the peak line and a commute to the West Area. If it have been me, I would select whichever of the 3 advances the furthest in Nashville. And if all 3 have been to lose their opening recreation on the SEC tourney, I would cross off the board and advertise Michigan State. The highest line would then come with all 4 energy convention champions. However I am not the committee, and they will select the SEC survivor.
Which crew has probably the most at stake getting into its convention match?
Borzello: Xavier. There are a host of bubble groups that may play themselves in or out of the sector this week, however there is something a couple of one-game, doubtlessly win-and-in state of affairs towards a high-level opponent that intrigues me. North Carolina, Texas, Colorado State, and so forth., may just all to find themselves in a equivalent state of affairs, however they want to win video games simply to get that chance. However Sean Miller’s Musketeers open Large East match play within the 4 vs. 5 recreation towards Marquette, and I do not believe they are able to get into the NCAA match and not using a win. Beating the Golden Eagles most likely will get them into the sector. They are simply 1-9 towards Quad 1 fighters, however they are 8-1 in Quad 2, and their metrics are first rate sufficient around the board. Any other Quad 1 on a impartial courtroom would transfer the needle.
Medcalf: North Carolina. This turns out to have transform a theme for this crew, however the Tar Heels may just doubtlessly omit their 2nd NCAA match in 3 years. From 1975 to 2009, North Carolina neglected the NCAA match handiest two times. To steer clear of a unprecedented stretch in program historical past this time, it is going to have to overcome Pitt or Notre Dame in the second one around of the ACC match — either one of whom it lately defeated in one-point video games — after which defeat every other bubble crew, Wake Wooded area, on Thursday, ahead of it probably will get a 3rd shot at Duke on Friday. That appears to be its handiest qualified trail to an NCAA match berth. If the Tar Heels fail, then the offseason will middle on Hubert Davis’ subsequent steps with a program that has struggled to care for its blue blood standing lately.
Lunardi: I am taking a nontraditional trail right here with VCU. In spite of dropping their regular-season finale, the Rams are it seems that just right sufficient. They have got Quad 1 wins at Dayton and Saint Joseph’s. And so they were given burned in scheduling when Seton Corridor and Miami each become mud. They’re top-35 in all efficiency metrics and top-30 within the NET. What they are able to’t take is a foul loss in an Atlantic 10 tourney during which everybody will probably be rooting towards them. If the Rams make the Sunday ultimate, they’re additionally within the NCAA match. However the A-10 is understood for peak seeds dropping, so there will probably be numerous intrigue within the country’s capital.
Which crew instead of Auburn has the most productive shot to win the SEC match?
Borzello: Florida. I picked the Gators once we needed to are expecting all 31 convention tournaments remaining week, and I am sticking with Todd Golden’s crew. The Gators are balanced, they are skilled, they’ve dimension and they’ve intensity now that they are wholesome. In addition they have rising NBA potentialities in Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, confirmed shot-makers in Alijah Martin and Will Richard and arguably the most productive scorer in any recreation they play in Walter Clayton Jr.
Most sensible tales of the week from
Get unique get admission to to hundreds of top rate articles a yr from peak writers.
• Rating the NFL’s peak 100 loose brokers »
• 30 MLB groups, 30 breakout stars in 2025 »
• 4,000 3s?! What is subsequent for Steph Curry»
Extra ESPN+ content material »
Medcalf: Alabama. Within the Purple Tide’s win over Auburn on Saturday night time at the street, they battled the previous No. 1 crew within the nation, regardless of Mark Sears suffering all through lots of the recreation till he made the sport winner. That is the type of win that can give Alabama a self belief spice up because it prepares for the SEC match. The crew’s tempo (No. 1 in adjusted pace on KenPom) may be a troublesome taste for any opponent to take care of in a single-elimination match over consecutive days. Fatigue will probably be an element for fighters. Plus, the Tide have performed Tennessee and Florida shut in contemporary weeks.
Lunardi: I have been leaning towards a Florida-Duke ultimate within the NCAA match. The Gators, to me, are probably the most balanced crew within the nation. I believe they’d win a best-of-seven sequence towards each and every crew within the SEC. Then again, everyone knows there’s no such factor in school basketball. So I am going with Tennessee in its house state, with an disenchanted of Auburn within the semifinals. I just like the Vols’ protection to energy them during the grind of 3 video games in 3 days. What is going to that imply for the NCAA match? Completely not anything …
Which convention match maximum intrigues you?
Borzello: The SEC’s. Is there every other resolution? It has each and every imaginable storyline for a high-major convention match. You wish to have 1-seed drama? Auburn seems to be prone to dangle directly to the No. 1 general seed, however will Florida, Alabama or Tennessee get the remaining 1-seed? Bubbles bursting? Arkansas must be ok with itself, however Texas is determined and Oklahoma will most likely handiest really feel just right with yet another win. After which there is the match identify itself. With 4 top-10 groups, plus the likes of Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri, there are a number of groups that might win on 3 or 4 consecutive days.
Medcalf: The solution is the SEC. However I additionally just like the Large Ten’s storylines. Wisconsin is 2-3 in its ultimate 5 video games of the steady season, which might transfer the Badgers into a perilous first-round matchup within the NCAA match. Illinois ended the steady season on a three-game successful streak. Indiana hopes to get Mike Woodson into the NCAA match in his ultimate season in Bloomington. Maryland has seemed like an actual Ultimate 4 crew in contemporary weeks; Purdue, which has long gone 2-5 in its previous seven video games, has no longer. The Large Ten match will probably be stuffed with groups with one thing to turn out to themselves and in all probability the committee, too.
Lunardi: I have at all times sought after to visit the Large 12 match in Kansas Town. No reason why instead of it is a very best extension of Large Monday from the steady season. The ones are some of the rarest of video games, when I am getting to only sit down nonetheless and watch. Plus, the Large 12 tourney has two extra of my favourite issues: Fran Fraschilla at the name and Joe’s BBQ after the sport. What a method to spend Champ Week!
