NBA contenders do not worry the Thunder

• Zach KramMar 5, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

  Shut

  Zach Kram is a countrywide NBA author for ESPN.com, that specialize in short- and long-term developments around the league’s analytics panorama. He in the past labored at The Ringer masking the NBA and MLB. You’ll practice Zach on X by the use of @zachkram.

Draymond Inexperienced does not worry the Oklahoma Town Thunder.

“There is a sure seriousness that it takes to win on this league, and there is a sure worry you must instill in groups as a way to win,” the Golden State Warriors ahead and four-time champion mentioned on his podcast previous this season. “I simply have no idea if they are instilling that worry in groups.”

Inexperienced is not on my own in that view. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported this previous week that “numerous other folks across the Western Convention — and I talked to coaches on different groups that will likely be within the playoff combine — [feel] there isn’t this nice worry of the Oklahoma Town Thunder.

“They have not performed it. And till a group does it, there is going to be a complete bunch of doubt.”

After all, the similar will have been mentioned of the 2024 champion Boston Celtics, as doubters puzzled whether or not Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown may win it. In 2023, Nikola Jokic wasn’t deemed excellent sufficient to steer the Nuggets to the promised land.

And going again to 2015, Inexperienced’s personal Warriors groups confronted complaint that an offense constructed round 3-pointers may elevate the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Thunder were each bit as spectacular as the ones championship groups, even ahead of proving doubters incorrect with a possible name run.

Combatants would possibly now not worry the Thunder. Listed below are 22 causes they will have to.

1. The Thunder have outscored combatants through 12.7 issues in keeping with sport this season, which is on tempo to damage an NBA document that has stood for over 50 years. The present mark is 12.3 issues in keeping with sport through the 1971-72 Lakers, who famously gained 33 video games in a row.

2. Whilst that margin of victory is a regular-season document, historical past means that stage of dominance will have to translate to the playoffs. The former peak 5 groups in level differential — the 1971-72 Lakers, 1970-71 Dollars, 1995-96 Bulls, 2016-17 Warriors, and 2023-24 Celtics — all coasted to titles, with a blended 71-12 document within the postseason. None even confronted a Recreation 7 en path to the championship.

Highest Level Differential in NBA Historical past

3. The Thunder have performed their approach into such rarefied air on account of 3 primary elements: intensity, celebrity energy and protection. Let’s get started with intensity, as a result of common supervisor Sam Presti has built a stacked roster. The Thunder have 11 gamers who’re no less than league moderate, in step with estimated plus-minus. That is the maximum for any group, forward of the Memphis Grizzlies’ 10.

4. All that intensity and all of Oklahoma Town’s blowout wins imply trainer Mark Daigneault hasn’t needed to pile heavy workloads onto his ideal gamers. The one two Thunder gamers averaging greater than 29 mins in keeping with sport are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranks thirty third amongst certified gamers in mins in keeping with sport, and Jalen Williams, who ranks forty eighth.

This encouraging development additionally applies to the NBA-leading Cavaliers, whose mins chief, Donovan Mitchell, ranks 71st within the league. And as each Oklahoma Town and Cleveland have massive leads for the No. 1 seeds (11 video games for the Thunder within the West, 7.5 for Cleveland within the East), each will have to be capable of stay their peak guys recent for the playoffs.

5. The Thunder’s lead for the West’s No. 1 seed is actually traditionally massive. With an 11-game lead three-quarters of the way in which in the course of the season, the Thunder are projected to win the convention through 14 video games, in step with ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI).

That may tie for the most important hole between the No. 1 and a couple of seeds in a convention for the reason that NBA-ABA merger; this previous 12 months’s Celtics had been the East’s peak group through 14 video games. Out of 12 earlier post-merger groups that gained their convention through double digits, 10 gained the championship.

6. The adaptation between Oklahoma Town and different groups that experience flexed their intensity to rack up regular-season wins, akin to this 12 months’s Grizzlies, is that the Thunder pair their intensity with higher top-end skill. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA with 32.6 issues in keeping with sport, and he is preferred to turn into the primary guard to win MVP since 2018.

7. Some critics — particularly Timberwolves trainer Chris Finch, at the side of quite a lot of rival fanatics on social media — accuse Gilgeous-Alexander of producing his issues through foul baiting. However whilst Gilgeous-Alexander does lead the league in made unfastened throws — partly as a result of he makes 90% of his makes an attempt — he additionally ranks moment in scoring from box objectives on my own, simply 0.1 issues in keeping with sport at the back of Milwaukee Dollars huge guy Giannis Antetokounmpo. And the Thunder as a group are tied for twenty eighth in unfastened throw makes an attempt.

As an alternative, Gilgeous-Alexander distributes his issues slightly flippantly from all over the place the ground: 31% from the midrange, 25% on the rim, 25% from unfastened throws and 20% from 3-point vary. His throwback taste is a part of what makes him so onerous to protect.

Editor’s Alternatives

1 Similar

8. Gilgeous-Alexander’s biggest offensive power: Like golfer Rory McIlroy, racetrack legend Lightning McQueen and actor Adam, SGA is an elite motive force. For the 5th season in a row, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in drives in keeping with sport.

And he isn’t simply a quantity motive force; he is additionally extremely environment friendly when he will get downhill. This season, the Thunder are averaging 1.20 issues in keeping with ownership when Gilgeous-Alexander drives and both shoots, commits a turnover or passes to a shooter. In line with 2d Spectrum, that mark ranks moment amongst 68 gamers with no less than 400 drives, at the back of handiest Phoenix Suns ahead Kevin Durant.

Mix the amount and high quality of his forays to the rim, and it is transparent why Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives without delay result in 4 extra issues in keeping with sport than another participant within the league.

9. Partly on account of his skill to slither round and slip previous defenders, Gilgeous-Alexander may be a very good isolation scorer. He leads the league in isolation possessions and rankings 1.11 issues in keeping with iso, which ranks within the 87th percentile amongst gamers with no less than 100 such performs.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s 1-on-1 scoring skill may turn out particularly vital within the playoffs. Around the NBA over the last decade, isolation frequency has persistently greater through a couple of 3rd within the postseason, in step with an research of 2d Spectrum information. From time to time, in essentially the most take hold of moments in opposition to the most efficient defenses, a contender simply wishes a celeb who can create a bucket for himself.

play

2:12

Stephen A. questions Shannon’s self assurance in Lakers over OKC

Stephen A. Smith and Shannon Sharpe get heated over whether or not the Thunder have what it takes to overcome the Lakers in a playoff collection.

10. Whilst Gilgeous-Alexander paces the offense — aided basically through contributions from Williams and the surging Aaron Wiggins — the protection prospers on account of a broader group effort. Oklahoma Town is permitting simply 106.0 issues in keeping with 100 possessions — 3.1 issues under the second-place Orlando Magic.

For context, within the play-by-play technology (since 1996-97), the typical hole between the most efficient and second-best defenses is solely 0.8 issues in keeping with 100 possessions; the most important hole ahead of this season used to be 2.6 issues. The Thunder are set to destroy that document.

11. This is differently to specific the Thunder’s defensive dominance. The worst offense this season belongs to the Washington Wizards, who’re averaging 105.5 issues in keeping with 100 possessions. Oklahoma Town is successfully turning all its combatants into the Wizards.

12. Oklahoma Town shuts down its combatants in myriad tactics, yet essentially the most eye-opening could be how successfully it stymies opponent pick-and-rolls. Within the fashionable NBA, this play is nearly each group’s bread and butter — however the Thunder throw that into the trash.

The Thunder permit simply 0.90 issues in keeping with opponent decide. That is the second-best mark for any group within the 2020s, at the back of handiest the 2019-20 Dollars.

13. Oklahoma Town forces the hardest shot nutrition within the league, in step with 2d Spectrum. To scouse borrow a soccer time period, the Thunder additionally win the ownership fight at a daft charge. They lead the league in steals with 10.8 in keeping with sport (essentially the most for any group within the twenty first century), in deflections, unfastened ball recoveries and costs, the place they’ve 59 (no different group has greater than 39).

Highest Turnover Margin (2024-25 season)

14. The Thunder don’t seem to be turnover masters on protection on my own. In addition they lead the league through committing the fewest turnovers on offense.

That mixture way the Thunder drive 5.9 extra turnovers in keeping with sport than they devote, which might obliterate the NBA document of five.1 through the 1987-88 Nuggets. This season, just one different group is even a 3rd of the way in which to the Thunder’s turnover margin.

15. What occurs whilst you win the turnover fight through an enormous margin? You win the fight for issues off turnovers through an enormous margin, too.

The Thunder lead the league in translating takeaways to issues on each ends: They ranking essentially the most issues off opponent turnovers (22.4 in keeping with sport) and make allowance the fewest issues off their very own turnovers (12.9), giving them an additional 9.5 issues in keeping with sport. No different group has a margin even part that giant.

Highest issues off turnovers margin (2024-25 season)

16. With such a lot of lockdown defenders on his roster — Williams, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso at the perimeter; Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein inside of — Daigneault has quite a lot of choices by which he can cycle when combatants get sizzling. The Thunder have not allowed a unmarried 40-point scorer all season, and they have got allowed handiest six gamers to succeed in 30. (Each and every different group has allowed no less than 14 opposing 30-point scorers, and the league moderate is 24.)

17. All of those numbers are so spectacular that it is virtually simple to disregard the Thunder boast them regardless of lacking Holmgren, the reigning Rookie of the 12 months runner-up, for many of the season. Because of a damaged pelvis and sprained ankle, Holmgren has performed in simply 18 of 61 video games.

But if he is to be had, he makes Oklahoma Town’s already nice protection even better. Holmgren has held combatants to 40% taking pictures close to the basket this season, which leads all gamers who’ve defended no less than 100 pictures.

18. When Holmgren is at the court docket, the Thunder are much more dominant than standard, with a plus-17.4 internet ranking that ranks moment amongst all NBA rotation gamers. The one participant forward of Holmgren is Gilgeous-Alexander, at plus-17.5. And the remainder of the highest 5 in internet ranking is extra Thunder teammates: Caruso in 3rd position, Isaiah Joe in fourth and Kenrich Williams in 5th.

19. One new merit for this model of the Thunder is a capability to overcome groups with Holmgren at the bench. Within the 2023-24 playoffs, OKC outscored combatants through 11.2 issues in keeping with 100 possessions with Holmgren at the court docket, in keeping with Cleansing the Glass. However and not using a viable backup huge guy, the Thunder had been outscored through 7.1 issues in keeping with 100 possessions when Holmgren used to be off the court docket. That used to be the most important on/off hole at the roster and the sixth-largest amongst all gamers with no less than 300 playoff mins.

Hartenstein has solved that drawback since signing with the Thunder in unfastened company. When he performs with out Holmgren, the Thunder have a plus-12.9 internet ranking, proper in step with their total mark. Pending excellent well being, Oklahoma Town will have to be capable of play each postseason minute with a forged middle patrolling the paint.

20. Hartenstein fixes some other factor that plagued the Thunder this previous season, when a rotation stuffed with perimeter gamers and the tall-but-slight Holmgren used to be incessantly helpless at the forums. Within the convention semifinals, the Thunder scored in 29 extra “first-chance” alternatives than the Mavericks did — yet Dallas compensated with 29 extra issues off offensive rebounds.

However Hartenstein is a burly 7-footer and a very good rebounder. The Thunder rank within the 62nd percentile for defensive rebounding with him within the sport, in keeping with Cleansing the Glass — now not close to the highest of the league yet sufficiently competent. Every other weak point, solved.

21. Hartenstein’s presence supplies but extra lineup flexibility, and Daigneault has mentioned he plans to make use of the remainder of the steady season to experiment with double-big lineups that includes each Hartenstein and Holmgren. The ones teams have appeared relatively awkward within the early going yet fared neatly nevertheless, with a plus-8.8 internet ranking in a restricted pattern, in keeping with Cleansing the Glass, regardless of awful good fortune on 3-pointers.

A two-bigs glance would possibly now not finally end up because the group’s number one lineup within the playoffs, however it will have to turn out helpful as a wrinkle in opposition to sure combatants, such because the supersized Mavericks or in a possible Finals conflict in opposition to Cleveland.

22. Now we now have come complete circle: The Thunder have such a lot of choices on account of the fantastic intensity surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander — which will have to handiest develop within the seasons to return since the Thunder have each one of the crucial NBA’s youngest cores and the most important stash of draft selections within the league.

Relying on decide protections, Oklahoma Town may finally end up with a league-high 33 draft selections over the following seven years. (Heck, simply this upcoming June, the Thunder may realistically win the championship and land 3 top-20 selections!)

However the ones selections are vital for the long run. For now, because the 2024-25 season winds down, the Thunder have masses to perform within the intervening time — a bunch of NBA data to chase and a playoff bracket stuffed with opposing groups to frighten.